Where are we in the economic cycle

<p>You never really know where you are in the economic cycle until it's over but there's been a groundswell of economic commentary saying that the US economy is now early in a recovery.</p><p>“It’s official: we’re in a recovery," says Bank of America today.</p><p>Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs highlights that lower-income consumers are improving. That's something that goes against recent commentary from retailers.</p><p>“.. Perhaps surprisingly, we find the lower-income consumer is outperforming, with our measure of same-store sales rising 5.6% year-on-year for the 10 retailers whose stores are generally located in lower-income zip codes," Goldman writes.</p><p>From where I stand, this commentary says more about the complacence that's creeping into markets than about where we actually are in the cycle. Remember, most of these same voices said the US was near a recession at the start of the year.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.