Weekly Market Outlook (30-03 November)

<p>UPCOMING EVENTS:</p><ul><li>Monday:
Australia Retail Sales.</li><li>Tuesday: Japan
Jobs data, Japan Retail Sales and Industrial Production, Chinese PMI, BoJ
Policy Decision, Swiss Retail Sales, Eurozone GDP and CPI, Canada GDP, US
ECI, US Consumer Confidence, New Zealand Jobs data.</li><li>Wednesday:
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ADP, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM
Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings, FOMC Policy Decision.</li><li>Thursday: Swiss
CPI, US Challenger Job Cuts, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims.</li><li>Friday:
Chinese Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada Jobs data,
US NFP, US ISM Services PMI. </li></ul><p>Tuesday</p><p>The BoJ is
expected to keep everything unchanged with rates at -0.10% and YCC to target
the 10yr JGBs at 0% with a +/-50 bps soft cap and 1% hard cap. There is some
speculation about a tweak of the YCC policy though. The central bank is also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-seen-lifting-inflation-forecasts-pressure-policy-grows-2023-10-18/">expected
to raise its inflation forecasts</a> to show prices exceeding its 2% target for
2023 and 2024.</p><p>The
Eurozone CPI Y/Y is expected to fall to 3.2% vs. 4.3% <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-september-preliminary-cpi-43-vs-45-yy-expected-20230929/">prior</a>,
while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.2% vs. 4.5% prior. The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecb-leaves-key-interest-rates-unchanged-in-october-monetary-policy-meeting-20231026/">ECB
has paused</a> its tightening cycle at the last meeting with the market expecting
the central bank to remain on hold into the mid-2024 when it sees the ECB starting
the rate cut cycle. </p><p>The
US Consumer Confidence is seen ticking lower to 100 vs. 103 prior. The Conference
Board survey is more <a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/09/consumer-confidence-a-useful-indicator-of-the-labor-market/">weighted
towards the labour market</a>, while the University of Michigan survey is more
about households’ financial outlook. The labour market details have been
showing some weakness lately, which is something that we’ve been also seeing
via rising continuing claims. </p><p>Wednesday</p><p>The
US ADP has a poor track record in forecasting the US NFP, but it’s still a
market moving report, especially now that the labour market data is at the top
of the market’s attention. The consensus sees 150K jobs added in October vs.
89K in the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/adp-us-september-employment-89k-vs-153k-expected-20231004/">prior
month</a>. </p><p>The
US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.0 vs. 49.0
prior. The recent <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-509-vs-498-expected-20231024/">S&amp;P
Global Manufacturing PMI</a> beat expectations with the index printing at 50.0 as
the sector rebounded from the 2022 recession. Moreover, price pressures continue
to ease, which is a good development for the Fed. </p><p>The
US Job Openings are seen falling to 9.270M vs. 9.610M <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/jolts-job-openings-for-august-961m-versus-8800m-expected-20231003/">prior</a>.
This has been a strong market moving report given that the labour market data
is now at the top of the market’s focus. For now, the US labour market has been
softening via less jobs rather than more layoffs, which is what the Fed has
been aiming for. This is something that we’ve been also seeing lately with the
rising continuing claims and falling initial claims. </p><p>The
Fed is expected to keep the FFR unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. The market doesn’t
expect the Fed to raise rates anymore and sees the central bank cutting in
mid-2024. The focus will be more on the guidance for the December meeting, but
we are unlikely to see any pre-commitment as the FOMC remains in a “wait and
see” mode. Expect to hear the usual “data-dependent”, “proceeding carefully”
and “resilient economy”, but this meeting is likely to be as “boring” as the July
one. </p><p>Thursday</p><p>The
Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected at 1.8% vs. 1.7% <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/switzerland-september-cpi-17-vs-18-yy-expected-20231003/">prior</a>,
while the M/M reading is seen at 0.1% vs. -0.1% prior. The Switzerland
inflation has been in the SNB’s 0-2% target on both the headline and core
measures for quite some time already. </p><p>The
BoE is expected to keep the bank rate unchanged at 5.25%. <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-bailey-last-policy-decision-was-a-tight-one-20231013/">Citing
Governor Bailey</a>, this decision is likely to be a “tight” one as the hawks might
not like the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-september-cpi-67-vs-66-yy-expected-20231018/">recent
CPI report</a>, while the doves may see the softness in the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-september-payrolls-change-11k-vs-0k-prior-20231017/">labour
market</a> as a reason to keep rates steady. </p><p>The
US Jobless Claims <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-210k-vs-208k-estimate-20231026/">last
week</a> missed expectations with Continuing Claims now showing a clear upward
trend, which suggests that workers are finding it harder to get a job after
being laid off. This week the consensus sees Initial Claims at 210K vs. 210K
prior, while Continuing Claims are expected at 1795K vs. 1790K prior. </p><p>Friday</p><p>The
US NFP is expected to show 172K jobs added vs. a whooping 336K seen in the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-non-farm-payrolls-336k-vs-170k-expected-20231006/">prior
month</a>, and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 3.8%. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y are expected to cool to 4.0% vs. 4.2% prior, while the M/M
figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior. </p><p>The
Canadian labour market report is expected to show 20K jobs added vs. 63.8K in
the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-september-employment-638-vs-200k-expected-20231006/">prior
month</a> and the unemployment rate to increase to 5.6% vs. 5.5% prior. The
focus will also be on wages as the BoC has been highlighting its focus
on wage growth. </p><p>The
US ISM Services PMI is expected to tick lower to 53.0 vs. 53.6 prior. The recent <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-509-vs-498-expected-20231024/">S&amp;P
Global Services PMI</a> beat expectations with the Services index returning
into expansion. The good news is that the price pressures continue to ease. </p>

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.