Weekly data: British instruments in view ahead of inflation and the BoE

<img width="562" height="338" src="https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/weekly-data-exness.jpg" class="webfeedsFeaturedVisual wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" style="float: left; margin-right: 5px;" link_thumbnail="" srcset="https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/weekly-data-exness.jpg 880w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/weekly-data-exness-768×463.jpg 768w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/weekly-data-exness-730×438.jpg 730w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/weekly-data-exness-230×138.jpg 230w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/weekly-data-exness-380×228.jpg 380w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/weekly-data-exness-88×53.jpg 88w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/weekly-data-exness-245×148.jpg 245w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/weekly-data-exness-500×301.jpg 500w" sizes="(max-width: 562px) 100vw, 562px" /><p>Conversely, the chart would suggest a correction sooner or later, with overbought conditions having dominated in recent weeks. Friday’s peak above ¥182 was the highest price for pound-yen in more than seven years, even before the Brexit referendum, and with all three saturation signals clearly visible it would traditionally be a big risk to buy in here. Assuming the price does retrace lower, the uptrend might resume from the 38.2% area of the weekly Fibonacci fan around ¥173, the confluence with the 50 SMA from Bands.</p>
<p>That very much depends on British inflation and the tone of the BoE’s meeting on Thursday. Annual core inflation is expected to remain at 6.8% and non-core decline slightly to 8.4%, but the actual releases will almost certainly diverge from the estimates at least slightly. If slightly higher, the pound might continue upward in the short term. Japanese inflation is possibly more important than usual this week because if the consensus of a 0.3% drop is correct, the yen might continue losses with tightening by the BoJ looking less likely.</p>
<h3>Key data this week</h3>
<p><strong>Bold </strong>indicates the most important releases for this symbol.</p>
<p><u>Wednesday 21 June</u></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>6:00 GMT: British annual non-core inflation (May) – consensus 8.4%, previous 8.7%</strong></li>
<li><strong>6:00 GMT: British annual core inflation (May) – consensus 6.8%, previous 6.8%</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><u>Thursday 22 June</u></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>from 11:00 GMT: statement and press conference of the Bank of England</strong></li>
<li>23:01 GMT: British Gfk consumer confidence (June) – consensus negative 26, previous negative 27</li>
<li>23:30 GMT: Japanese annual non-core inflation (May) – consensus 3.2%, previous 3.5%</li>
<li>23:30 GMT: Japanese annual core inflation (May) – consensus 3.1%, previous 3.4%</li>
</ul>
<p><u>Friday 23 June</u></p>
<ul>
<li>6:00 GMT: British monthly retail sales (May) – consensus negative 0.2%, previous 0.5%</li>
</ul>
<h2>Dollar-franc, daily</h2>
<p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-449687" src="https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Dollar-franc-daily.jpg" alt="" width="1463" height="768" srcset="https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Dollar-franc-daily.jpg 1463w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Dollar-franc-daily-250×131.jpg 250w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Dollar-franc-daily-700×367.jpg 700w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Dollar-franc-daily-768×403.jpg 768w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Dollar-franc-daily-120×63.jpg 120w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Dollar-franc-daily-245×129.jpg 245w, https://www.leaprate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Dollar-franc-daily-500×262.jpg 500w" sizes="(max-width: 1463px) 100vw, 1463px" /></p>
<p><a href="https://www.leaprate.com/forex/market-news/weekly-data-focus-on-eurusd-and-audusd/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Last week</a> the Fed held rates but hinted at two more hikes this year although participants are currently pricing in only one. After the SNB’s double hike in March, another single hike is likely on Thursday as the central bank seems to be keen to make further progress on inflation and increase the costs of borrowing. Both the USA and Switzerland have seen the rate of inflation decrease significantly this year, but the peak in Switzerland at 3.5% last July was much lower than in the USA.</p>
<p>The chart might suggest a bounce for the dollar given that there hasn’t been another attempt yet to test the two-year low around 88.3 centimes. Demand to push below 0.89 seems to be quite limited and ATR has been dropping for several days. It’s likely to be a challenge to push above the 23.6% weekly Fibonacci retracement so it might be important to monitor the sizes of candles around the value area between the 50 and 100 SMAs.</p>
<p>However, the scope for gains this week depends on the SNB and Jerome Powell. If the news in the next few days is generally in line with the expectations, there might be another test of recent highs slightly below 91. Equally, dollar-franc is now quite a high carry symbol again – the difference in rates will be at least 3.25-3.5% even by the end of the week – so longer-term buying activity might pick up after the dust has settled from the news.</p>
<h3>Key data this week</h3>
<p><strong>Bold </strong>indicates the most important releases for this symbol.</p>
<p><u>Thursday 22 June</u></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>from 7:30 GMT: statement and press conference of the Swiss National Bank</strong></li>
<li>12:30 GMT: initial jobless claims (17 June) – consensus 259,000, previous 262,000</li>
<li><strong>from 14:00 GMT: Jerome Powell’s comments at Congressional report</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><u>Friday 23 June</u></p>
<ul>
<li>7:00 GMT: Swiss current account (first quarter) – consensus Fr 12.3 billion, previous Fr 15 billion</li>
</ul>
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<p><em>Disclaimer: opinions are personal to the author and do not reflect the opinions of Exness or LeapRate.</em></p>
</div>
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