Volatile Outlook: Fed and ECB Meetings Put EUR/USD at a Crossroads Amid Positive Retail Sentiment

<p>As we approach the next trading week, all eyes are on the upcoming policy meetings of two powerful central banks – the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The outcome of these meetings and the decisions made will undoubtedly influence the EUR/USD exchange rate and determine the course of the currency pair in the coming weeks. With the EUR/USD at a Crossroads and currently standing at a crucial juncture, traders are attentively monitoring the market for signs of potential reversals or further movements towards crucial support levels, all in anticipation of the crucial central bank gatherings. </p>

<p>In the ever-evolving world of foreign exchange markets, the Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair remains one of the most closely watched and traded pairs. The prevailing uncertainty in market sentiment has led astute traders to strategically position themselves to navigate potential volatility and seize opportunities arising from the pivotal policy decisions of the Fed and the ECB.</p>

<h2>EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Pair Slides Towards Key Support Levels Ahead of Central Bank Meetings</h2>

<p>In the current market landscape, the EUR/USD has experienced some downside pressure, sliding back towards the 1.1100 level. This retreat comes as the US dollar shows signs of strength, trading approximately 150 pips higher than its recent low print of 99.50. This week has seen some better-than-expected US economic data, which has contributed to the US dollar’s resurgence. Additionally, a weakness in various basket currencies has also lent support to the greenback.</p>

<figure><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="571" src="https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image1-1-2-1024×571.png" alt="" class="wp-image-8730" srcset="https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image1-1-2-1024×571.png 1024w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image1-1-2-300×167.png 300w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image1-1-2-768×428.png 768w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image1-1-2.png 1521w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption><strong>US DOLLAR INDEX DAILY CHART – JULY 21<br></strong>Source: dailyFX</figcaption></figure>

<p>However, as we approach the next trading week, the focus shifts to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision, prompting a potential consolidation of this week’s gains in the <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy" target="_blank" data-type="URL" data-="data-" rel="noreferrer noopener">US dollar</a>. Before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, there is a blackout period for Federal Reserve speakers, leaving traders to anticipate the Fed’s decision in relative calm.</p>

<h2>Central Bank Policy Meeting Dates Calendar</h2>

<p>The next trading week is marked by two crucial central bank policy meetings that are expected to shape the future direction of the EUR/USD currency pair. First, on Wednesday, July 26, at 19:00 UK time, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate hike. The following day, on July 27 at 13:15 UK time, the European Central Bank is also expected to raise rates by a quarter of a point.</p>

<p>Traders will closely monitor these policy meetings as both central banks will hold press conferences 30 minutes after announcing their decisions. These press conferences will be vital in providing insights into the future actions of both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Expectations of a volatile time for EUR/USD traders have heightened, and market participants are gearing up to navigate potential market swings.</p>

<h2>Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Fading Towards Key Support Levels</h2>

<p>From a technical standpoint, the <a href="https://in.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd" target="_blank" data-type="URL" data-="data-" rel="noreferrer noopener">EUR/USD</a> currency pair is currently fading towards a critical prior level of resistance, which has now turned into support at 1.10956. Should the pair break below this level, the next horizontal support is found at 1.10758, with the February swing high at 1.10328 further down the line.</p>

<figure><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image2-1-2-1024×478.png" alt="" class="wp-image-8731" width="762" height="355" srcset="https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image2-1-2-1024×478.png 1024w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image2-1-2-300×140.png 300w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image2-1-2-768×358.png 768w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image2-1-2-1536×717.png 1536w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image2-1-2.png 1820w" sizes="(max-width: 762px) 100vw, 762px" /><figcaption><strong>EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART – JULY 21<br></strong>Source: dailyFX</figcaption></figure>

<p>Market participants are closely watching these support levels, especially with the two central bank meetings on the horizon. Should the EUR/USD test these support levels, their ability to hold could have significant implications for the currency pair’s future trajectory.</p>

<h2>Retail Trader Sentiment</h2>

<p>Retail trader data provides valuable insights into market sentiment and positioning. According to recent data, 33.36% of traders are currently net-long on EUR/USD, with a short-to-long ratio of 2.00 to 1. This suggests that traders are generally biased towards a bearish sentiment on the currency pair.</p>

<p>However, it’s important to note that sentiment can change rapidly. The number of traders net-long is 24.45% higher than the previous day and 32.35% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.43% lower than the previous day and 10.29% lower than last week. These changes in sentiment indicate that traders may be less bearish on EUR/USD than before.</p>

<p>As a contrarian indicator, this shift in sentiment may suggest that EUR/USD prices could continue to rise. However, traders should exercise caution as sentiment can reverse quickly, and recent changes in sentiment indicate that the current price trend may soon reverse lower, despite retail traders remaining net-short.</p>

<h2>Conclusion</h2>

<p>The EUR/USD currency pair is at a crucial juncture as the market eagerly awaits the outcomes of the upcoming central bank policy meetings. With both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank set to make significant decisions on interest rates, the market anticipates heightened volatility and potential trend reversals.</p>

<p>Technical analysis points to key support levels that traders will closely monitor as the currency pair slides back towards 1.1100. Retail trader sentiment adds an interesting dimension to the market outlook, suggesting potential upside for EUR/USD in the near term.</p>

<p>As the Fed and ECB’s decisions draw near, traders must exercise prudent risk management and be prepared for various market scenarios. The interplay of market fundamentals, technical analysis, and sentiment will guide traders as they navigate the ever-changing landscape of the EUR/USD currency pair.</p>

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