USDJPY Technical Analysis – Intervention fears weigh on the pair

<p>US:</p><ul><li>The Fed <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/the-fomc-keeps-the-target-fed-funds-range-at-525-to-550-20230920/">left interest rates unchanged</a> as
expected.</li><li>The macroeconomic projections were revised higher
as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot
showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike by the end
of the year with less rate cuts in 2024.</li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/highlights-from-the-fed-chair-powells-press-conference-after-september-rate-decision-20230920/">Fed Chair Powell</a>
reaffirmed their data dependency but added that they will proceed carefully as
they are trying to find the optimal level of rates. Powell also added that the
soft landing is not the base case at the moment, although they are aiming for
it.</li><li>The latest <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-august-cpi-06-mm-versus-06-mm-expected-20230913/">US CPI</a> came
in line with expectations with the Core measure continuing to show
disinflation.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-august-non-farm-payrolls-187k-vs-170k-expected-20230901/">labour market</a> displayed
signs of softening although it remains fairly solid as seen also yesterday with
another beat in Jobless Claims.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-consumer-confidence-1030-vs-1055-expected-20230926/">US Consumer Confidence</a> this
week missed expectations although the jobs details were positive.</li><li>The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike again at
the moment.</li></ul><p>Japan:</p><ul><li>The BoJ <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-makes-no-change-to-its-major-policy-planks-no-change-to-forward-guidance-20230922/">kept everything unchanged</a> as expected.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-august-inflation-cpi-excluding-fresh-food-energy-43-yy-prior-43-20230921/">Japanese CPI</a> last week showed that inflationary
pressures remain high with the core-core reading hovering at the cycle highs.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/all-tokyo-area-september-cpi-data-comes-in-way-above-the-2-boj-target-rate-again-20230928/">Unemployment Rate</a> today missed expectations although
it matched the previous reading.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-september-preliminary-manufacturing-pmi-486-prior-496-20230922/">Japanese Manufacturing PMI</a> fell further into contraction but
the Services PMI remains in expansion.</li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-will-not-hesitate-to-take-additional-easing-measures-if-necessary-20230922/">BoJ governor Ueda</a> repeated that they will not
hesitate to take additional easing measures if needed and clarified that the
recent comment on “quiet exit” from monetary easing was misinterpreted. </li><li>The recent <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-july-real-wages-fall-25-yy-and-household-spending-falls-5-yy-20230907/">Japanese wage data</a> showed a slowing in wage growth,
and this is something the BoJ focuses on particularly. </li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/all-tokyo-area-september-cpi-data-comes-in-way-above-the-2-boj-target-rate-again-20230928/">Tokyo CPI</a>, which is seen as a leading
indicator for national CPI, continues to fall although it remains well above
the BoJ target.</li></ul><p>USDJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe</p><p>On the daily chart, we can see
that USDJPY is getting close to the key 150.00 level which is the target of
many market participants and it’s also considered the line in the sand for an
intervention. The trend remains bullish as the price continues to print higher
highs and higher lows with the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/">moving averages</a> being
crossed to the upside and acting as dynamic support. The divergence in the
economic data between US and Japan continues to favour the upside. </p><p>USDJPY Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe</p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a
massive <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/">divergence</a> with the
<a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/">MACD</a> which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks and
reversals. This may be justified by the fear of an intervention that prevents
the price to shoot up faster. The price action has also formed what looks like
a <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/">rising wedge</a>, which
is a reversal pattern. If the price breaks below the bottom <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/">trendline</a>, we
might see the pair going back to the 145.00 level. </p><p>USDJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe</p><p>On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is printing lower lows and lower highs on this timeframe. The market
might need to take a breather or something more on the fundamental side to push
into the highs again. We might see the pair pulling back into the bottom
trendline where the buyers are likely to step in again. </p><p>Upcoming Events</p><p><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar">Today</a> the only notable release will be the US PCE
report. The data is unlikely to change anything for the market unless we get
some big surprises. </p><p>See also the video below:</p>

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.