USDCAD Technical Analysis – Breakout or fakeout?

<p>US</p><ul><li>The Fed <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-no-change-20231101/">left interest rates unchanged</a> as
expected with basically no change to the statement.</li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-opening-statement-the-committee-is-proceeding-carefully-20231101/">Fed Chair Powell</a> stressed
once again that they are proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy
tightening have yet to be felt.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-pce-core-37-vs-37-expected-20231027/">US Core PCE</a> last
week came in line with expectations. </li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-august-non-farm-payrolls-187k-vs-170k-expected-20230901/">labour market</a> remains
pretty resilient but we are starting to see some weakness as <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-weekly-initial-jobless-claims-217k-vs-210k-expected-20231102/">Jobless Claims</a> missed
expectations once again this week with Continuing Claims now rising at a fast
pace. </li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-october-consumer-confidence-1026-vs-1000-expected-20231031/">US Consumer
Confidence</a> fell for the third consecutive month
although the data beat expectations.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-ism-manufacturing-pmi-467-vs-490-expected-20231101/">US ISM
Manufacturing PMI</a> this week missed expectations by a big
margin.</li><li>The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.</li></ul><p>Canada</p><ul><li>The BoC <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-canada-decision-rates-held-unchanged-at-500-as-expected-20231025/">left interest rates at 5.00%</a> as expected but remains prepared to raise
rates further if needed.</li><li>BoC <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bocs-macklem-we-are-seeing-clear-evidence-that-higher-rates-are-working-20231025/">Governor Macklem</a> delivered a less hawkish speech in
the press conference compared to his previous remarks. </li><li>The recent <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-september-cpi-38-versus-40-expected-20231017/">Canadian CPI</a> missed expectations across the
board and the underlying inflation measures eased, which was a welcome
development for the BoC. </li><li>On the labour market side, the last
report beat expectations and showed another uptick in <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-september-employment-638-vs-200k-expected-20231006/">wage growth</a>, which is something that Governor
Macklem said the BoC is watching carefully.</li><li>The market doesn’t expect the BoC to
hike anymore.</li></ul><p>USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe</p><p>On the daily chart, we can see that the USDCAD has
been <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/">diverging</a> with the
<a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/">MACD</a> trading
into the key 1.3862 <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/">resistance</a>. This is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the price sold off and it even broke below the bottom <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/">trendline</a>. This is
a bad omen for the buyers as it opened the door for a bigger drop into the
major trendline around the 1.36 handle. If the price gets there, we can expect
the buyers to step in more aggressively as they will have a much better risk to
reward setup. </p><p>USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe</p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the
breakout of the trendline yesterday with the price now consolidating around the
support zone. The sellers are likely to keep piling in as long as the price
stays below the broken trendline and target the 1.36 handle. The buyers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price rallying back above the broken trendline
to leave behind a fakeout and start targeting a new high. </p><p>USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe</p><p>On the 1 hour chart, we can see that from
a risk management perspective, the sellers would be better off shorting from
the downward trendline where they will find the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/">confluence</a> with
the broken trendline and the red 21 <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/">moving average</a>. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
invalidate the bearish setup and position for new highs. </p><p>Upcoming Events</p><p><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar">Today</a>, we conclude the week with the US NFP report,
the Canadian Labour Market data and the ISM Services PMI. </p>

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.