USDCAD moves to 200 day MA and swing area but backing off a bit

USDCAD stalls after breaking 200 day moving average

The USDCAD has moved to a new high and in the process, moved above the 200 day MA at 1.26204. The price also tested and moved briefly above a swing area between 1.26211 and 1.26263. The high price reached 1.26287 but could not sustain momentum.
The price of the USDCAD has subsequently moved back below its 200 day moving average and currently trades at 1.2617.
Will traders be disappointed on the failed break and turn to sellers now?
Close risk for sellers would now be a move above the aforementioned levels.
On the downside, the broken 38.2% retracement 1.25923 would be the next downside target. Below that and traders will start to look toward the 1.25616 to 1.25696 area, followed by the rising 100 hour moving average at 1.2551.