USD/CHF – An attempted hawkish hold from the SNB but markets not buying it

<p><a href="https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/facebook/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketpulse.com%2Fforex%2Fusd%2Fusd-chf-an-attempted-hawkish-hold-from-the-snb-but-markets-not-buying-it%2Fcerlam&amp;pubid=ra-525512e4690e068c&amp;title=Marketpulse%20%7C%20Home&amp;ct=1" target="_blank"><img src="https://cache.addthiscdn.com/icons/v3/thumbs/32×32/facebook.png" border="0" alt="Facebook" /></a><a href="https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/twitter/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketpulse.com%2Fforex%2Fusd%2Fusd-chf-an-attempted-hawkish-hold-from-the-snb-but-markets-not-buying-it%2Fcerlam&amp;pubid=ra-525512e4690e068c&amp;title=Marketpulse%20%7C%20Home&amp;ct=1" target="_blank"><img src="https://cache.addthiscdn.com/icons/v3/thumbs/32×32/twitter.png" border="0" alt="Twitter" /></a><a href="https://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/email/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketpulse.com%2Fforex%2Fusd%2Fusd-chf-an-attempted-hawkish-hold-from-the-snb-but-markets-not-buying-it%2Fcerlam&amp;pubid=ra-525512e4690e068c&amp;title=Marketpulse%20%7C%20Home&amp;ct=1" target="_blank"><img src="https://cache.addthiscdn.com/icons/v3/thumbs/32×32/email.png" border="0" alt="Email" /></a></p><ul>
<li data-slate-block="regular" data-slate-type="paragraph" data-slate-value="{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The SNB refrained from raising interest rates earlier today, instead signaling that sufficient tightening has taken place in order to get inflation back to below 2% over the forecast horizon. While inflation is already well below 2%, there was an expectation that the central bank would hike again and in effect mirror the actions of the ECB before calling it a day."}]}" data-slate-node="element"><strong>SNB leaves its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%</strong></li>
<li data-slate-block="regular" data-slate-type="paragraph" data-slate-value="{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The SNB refrained from raising interest rates earlier today, instead signaling that sufficient tightening has taken place in order to get inflation back to below 2% over the forecast horizon. While inflation is already well below 2%, there was an expectation that the central bank would hike again and in effect mirror the actions of the ECB before calling it a day."}]}" data-slate-node="element"><strong>Chair Jordan signals further hikes likely won’t be necessary</strong></li>
<li data-slate-block="regular" data-slate-type="paragraph" data-slate-value="{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The SNB refrained from raising interest rates earlier today, instead signaling that sufficient tightening has taken place in order to get inflation back to below 2% over the forecast horizon. While inflation is already well below 2%, there was an expectation that the central bank would hike again and in effect mirror the actions of the ECB before calling it a day."}]}" data-slate-node="element"><strong>USDCHF testing major resistance level after decision</strong></li>
</ul>
<p class="_ParagraphElement_yyl4z_19" data-slate-block="regular" data-slate-type="paragraph" data-slate-value="{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The SNB refrained from raising interest rates earlier today, instead signaling that sufficient tightening has taken place in order to get inflation back to below 2% over the forecast horizon. While inflation is already well below 2%, there was an expectation that the central bank would hike again and in effect mirror the actions of the ECB before calling it a day."}]}" data-slate-node="element"><span data-slate-node="text">The SNB refrained from raising interest rates earlier today, instead signaling that sufficient tightening has taken place in order to get inflation back to below 2% over the forecast horizon. </span></p>
<p class="_ParagraphElement_yyl4z_19" data-slate-block="regular" data-slate-type="paragraph" data-slate-value="{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The SNB refrained from raising interest rates earlier today, instead signaling that sufficient tightening has taken place in order to get inflation back to below 2% over the forecast horizon. While inflation is already well below 2%, there was an expectation that the central bank would hike again and in effect mirror the actions of the ECB before calling it a day."}]}" data-slate-node="element"><span data-slate-node="text">While inflation is already well below 2%, there was an expectation that the central bank would hike again and in effect mirror the actions of the ECB before calling it a day.</span></p>
<p class="_ParagraphElement_yyl4z_19" data-slate-block="regular" data-slate-type="paragraph" data-slate-value="{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The decision did see the Swiss franc weaken against the euro, as you'd expect, despite Chair Jordan's attempts to strike a hawkish tone in warning rates could still rise again if they deemed it necessary. That seems very unlikely now though, instead, it will soon become a question of when we can expect rate cuts rather than hikes. "}]}" data-slate-node="element" data-slate-fragment="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"><span data-slate-node="text">The decision did see the Swiss franc weaken against the euro, as you’d expect, despite Chair Jordan’s attempts to strike a hawkish tone in warning rates could still rise again if they deemed it necessary. </span></p>
<p class="_ParagraphElement_yyl4z_19" data-slate-block="regular" data-slate-type="paragraph" data-slate-value="{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The decision did see the Swiss franc weaken against the euro, as you'd expect, despite Chair Jordan's attempts to strike a hawkish tone in warning rates could still rise again if they deemed it necessary. That seems very unlikely now though, instead, it will soon become a question of when we can expect rate cuts rather than hikes. "}]}" data-slate-node="element" data-slate-fragment="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"><span data-slate-node="text">That seems very unlikely now though, instead, it will soon become a question of when we can expect rate cuts rather than hikes. </span></p>
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<p><strong>Another bullish breakout coming?</strong></p>
<p>The dollar has been in a downtrend against the Swiss franc for much of the last 10 months but a breakout earlier this month signaled a change may be underway.</p>
<p><strong>USDCHF Daily</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/USDCHF_2023-09-21_16-29-30.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img loading="lazy" class="aligncenter wp-image-807702" src="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/USDCHF_2023-09-21_16-29-30-1024×412.png" alt="" width="621" height="250" srcset="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/USDCHF_2023-09-21_16-29-30-1024×412.png 1024w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/USDCHF_2023-09-21_16-29-30-300×121.png 300w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/USDCHF_2023-09-21_16-29-30-768×309.png 768w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/USDCHF_2023-09-21_16-29-30-1536×619.png 1536w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/USDCHF_2023-09-21_16-29-30.png 1793w" sizes="(max-width: 621px) 100vw, 621px" /></a></p>
<p>Source – OANDA on Trading View</p>
<p>Having broken above the descending channel, the pair is now testing the 200/233-day simple moving average band and it’s already seeing some resistance.</p>
<p>A break above 0.91 could be a very bullish move as not only would it represent a move above that key moving average band, but it would also break a key level of support and resistance from this year.</p>
<p>There are perhaps some signs of weakness appearing in the momentum indicators, which would be understandable given the significance of 0.91.</p>
<p>If we do see a pullback, 0.8820-0.8860 could be interesting, being a previously important area of support and resistance and roughly coinciding with the 55/89-day SMA band.</p>