US: This Week's NFP Expectations

<p>&nbsp;Today's Asian and European sessions have seen several currencies and commodity markets rise after the release of the latest "US JOLT'S" data.</p><p><br /></p><p>The JOLTS report for the production of October yesterday was interpreted to mean that the supply and demand ratio of the country's labor market was seen to have reached equilibrium when the JOLTS was reported to have fallen to 8.73 million, making the data reading the lowest since March 2021.</p><p><br /></p><p>Effects on Monetary Policy of American Finance</p><p><br /></p><p>JOLTS is one of the key data components for the NFP data reading indicator and the unemployment rate in America.</p><p><br /></p><p>The preliminary data yesterday has given an early indication where the labor market in the country has reached equilibrium or interpreted in economic language as "Labor Market Cooling".</p><p><br /></p><p>For the record, since 2021, the year of the Covid pandemic, the labor market in America shows an imbalance between the ratio of open job opportunities and filled jobs.</p><p><br /></p><p>For the FED, the initial indication through the JOLTS data provides clear evidence that interest rate hikes in the future do not need to be implemented.</p><p><br /></p><p>We at Saracen Markets believe that the next step for the FED is to cut rather than increase interest rates which is expected to start in March 2024.</p><p><br /></p><p>Accordingly, we believe that the NFP data that will be announced on Friday at the end of this week is as follows:</p><p><br /></p><p>Date Data Period Expected Public Expected Saracen Markets Previous Reading</p><p>8-Dec Nonfarm Payrolls November 189K 215K 150K</p>