US November core CPI 4.0% y/y versus 4.0% y/y expected

<ul><li>CPI y/y +% versus 3.1% expected</li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-october-core-cpi-40-yy-versus-41-yy-expected-20231114/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior </a>y/y 3.2%</li><li>CPI m/m +0.1% versus 0.0% expected </li><li>Prior m/m 0.0%</li></ul><p>Core measures:</p><ul><li>Core CPI m/m +0.3% versus +0.3% expected. Last month 0.2%</li><li>Core CPI y/y 4.0% versus 4.0% expected. Last month was 4.0%</li><li>Shelter +0.4% versus +0.3% last month. Up 6.5% y/y</li><li>Services less rent of shelter +0.6% m/m vs +0.3% prior (+3.5% y/y)</li><li>Core services ex housing +0.44% m/m</li><li>Real weekly earnings +0.5% vs -0.1% prior</li><li>Food +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% m/m prior</li><li>Food +2.9% y/y</li><li>Energy -2.3% m/m vs -2.5% m/m prior</li><li>Energy -5.4% y/y</li><li>Rents +0.5% m/m vs +0.5% prior</li><li>Owner equivalent rent +0.5% vs +0.4% prior</li><li><a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Full report</a></li></ul><p>As reminder how quickly things can change: At the time of the October CPI report, the market was pricing in a 33% chance of a January hike.</p><p>Now we're pricing in 120 bps in cuts next year versus 115 bps before the report. The US dollar is sliding in the immediate aftermath (update: it's reversed that). The market isn't too worried about that 0.1 pp miss on the headline.</p><p>Shelter (+6.0% y/y) and motor vehicle insurance (+19.2%) are the only real sources of worrisome upward pressure in prices left.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.