US non-farm payrolls preview: "still strong demand for workers"

<p>Earlier preview is here:</p><p><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/july-non-farm-payrolls-preview-adp-vs-ism-edition-20230803/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">July non-farm payrolls preview: ADP vs ISM edition</a></p><p>The data is due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time. </p><p>Deutsche Bank:</p><ul><li>While our economists expect some payback from state and local government education hiring for the headline print (+175k forecast, consensus at +200k vs. +209k previously), they expect a slight pick up in private (+175k vs. +149k) payrolls inline with consensus. This would be below the three-month averages for headline (+244k) and private (+196k) payrolls gains. </li><li>Watch out for average hourly earnings and hours worked as well. </li></ul><p>CIBC:</p><ul><li>Initial jobless claims eased over the July survey reference period, suggesting that a healthy 185K jobs could have been created in the US. That’s in line with the climb in participation seen lately in the prime-age working group, which coincides with a drawdown of excess savings. Still strong demand for workers, as evidenced by elevated job openings, suggests that new labor force entrants are being absorbed quickly into vacant positions. </li><li>The unemployment rate could have remained steady at 3.6%, while a rise in participation also would have left more room for hiring without putting additional upwards pressure on wages, which likely slowed to 0.3% MoM. We’re slightly lower than the consensus on hiring which could result in bond yields falling.</li></ul><p>Scotia:</p><ul><li>Federal Reserve Chair Powell made it very clear that the FOMC is extremely data-dependent as it plots the long path ahead toward the next decision on September 20th. … Key will be Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and wages for the month of July. I’ve gone with a guesstimated gain of 250k and an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.6% with wage growth pegged at another 0.4% m/m SA nonannualized gain. That should keep trend wage growth running at a healthy clip that is expected to remain above the rate of inflation and drive real wage gains</li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.