US non-farm payroll preview – here are the ranges of estimates

<p>The ranges from the survey are useful to be aware of for such high-profile data. When the actual results fall outside the range of estimates the market impact can be outsized. </p><p>I posted earlier in the week the range of estimates for the ADP data, which then came in well below. The market response was indeed outsized that session. </p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-data-focus-for-wednesday-is-adp-jobs-september-and-ism-services-pmi-also-september-20231003/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">US data focus for Wednesday is ADP jobs (September) and ISM Services PMI (also September)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/adp-us-september-employment-89k-vs-153k-expected-20231004/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">ADP US September employment +89K vs +153K expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-4oct-after-30-year-yield-hits-5-yields-back-off-20231004/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 4Oct: After 30 year yield hits 5%, yields back off</a></li></ul><p>So, given that preamble, here are the ranges from the survey of expectations for the major data points in the NFP coming up today, minimum estimate first, then the maximum:</p><ul><li>Headline number for non-farm payrolls 90K to 256K</li><li>Unemployment rate 3.4% to 3.9%</li><li>Average earnings m/m 0.1% to 0.4%</li><li>Average earnings y/y 4.2% to 4.4%</li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.