US jobs report is due on Friday, 7 July 2023 – NFP preview

<p>A snippet from Deutsche Bank previewing the nonfarm payroll report due at 8.30 am US Eastern time on Friday, 7 July 2023. </p><p>With
the headline number ranging from +217k to +472k over the last 6 months,
these are not currently close to recessionary levels.</p><ul><li> However, the average
recession through history has seen payrolls move from an average of
just over +100k in the 3-6 months before to very suddenly negative in
the first month of the recession where it tends to stay for several
months. You don’t tend to get any warning from prior
payroll prints that its going to turn negative but with the range this
year, and last month being at +339k, we probably need to move down into
the 100-200k range before we can be on more near-term recession watch.
Even then it still might not happen but that’s probably a necessary
condition outside of a shock.
</li></ul><p>For Friday, our
economists expect headline (consensus +225k, DB +200k vs. +339k
previously) and private (consensus +200k, DB +175k vs. +283k) payroll
gains to slow relative to their three-month averages of +283k and +231k,
respectively. </p><ul><li>This should still edge unemployment back
down a tenth to 3.7% (consensus 3.6%) after a surprise spike last month.
</li><li> Hours worked was weak last month and our economists expect that to
bounce from 34.3 to 34.4hrs. </li><li>Hourly earnings are expected to be steady
at 0.3%.</li></ul><ul><li>
This
snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar">access
it here</a>.</li><li>
The
times in the left-most column are GMT. </li><li>
The
numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous
month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column
next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median
expected.</li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.