US Empire manufacturing index for January -43.7 versus -5.0 estimate

<p>Yikes…The spigot from manufacturing in NY was quickly turned off. </p><p>This reading is the lowest since May 2020 at the height of the pandemic with.</p><ul><li>Prior month -14.5 (the expectations last month was for a gain of 2.0). The decline last month was the lowest since August</li></ul><p>Details:</p><ul><li>New orders -49.4 vs -11.3 last month</li><li>Shipments -31.3 vs -6.4 last month</li><li>Prices paid 13.2 vs 16.7 last month</li><li>Prices Received 9.5 vs +11.5 last month</li><li>Employment -6.9 vs -8.4 last month</li><li>Average Employee workweek -6.1 vs -2.4 last month</li><li>Unfilled orders -24.2 vs -24.0 last month</li><li>Delivery times -8.4 versus -15.6 last month.</li><li>Inventories -7.4 vs -5.2 last month</li></ul><p>The 6-month forward index:</p><ul><li>General business condition 18.8 versus 12.1 last month</li><li>new orders 25.2 versus 11.3 last month</li><li>shipments 24.6 versus 15.8 last month</li><li>prices paid 40.0 versus 25.0 last month</li><li>prices received 32.6 versus 27.1 last month</li><li>employment 16.8 versus 10.9 last month</li><li>average employee workweek 14.7 versus 10.4 last month</li><li>unfilled orders 16.8 versus 5.2 last month</li><li>delivery times 11.6 versus -1.1 last month</li><li>inventories 5.3 versus 9.4 last month</li><li>capital expenditures 13.7 versus 4.2 last month</li><li>technology spending 9.5 versus 10.3 last month</li></ul><p>“New York manufacturing activity fell sharply in January following a significant
decline in December. While the survey’s headline index has fluctuated in recent
months, this outsized drop suggests January was a difficult month for
New York manufacturers, with employment and hours worked also contracting.”
~Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed</p><p>Looking at the chart the level is the lowest since the pandemic and also the 2nd lowest since 2001. It seems unbelievable. The markets are a bit skeptical it seems. US yields are lower from earlier levels but they are still higher on the day. 2-year yield is at 4.5% +4.8 basis points. Yield is at 3.995% of 4.6 basis points.</p><p>US stocks or down but what far from earlier levels:</p><ul><li>S&amp;P futures are implying -13.83 points</li><li>NASDAQ futures are implying -47.67 point decline</li><li>Dow futures are implying a decline of -54 points</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.