US economy faces a mild recession in first half of 2024 , Deutsche Bank projects Fed cuts

<p>As part of&nbsp;Deutsche Bank's&nbsp;2024 World Outlook is their projection for the US economy and Federal Reserve response:</p><ul><li><em>The lag of policy will help trigger a mild US recession in H1 2024 with the upside risks being a continuation of the inflation/labour market progress made in 2023, with the downside being the non-linearity risk mentioned above. We think there will be 175bps of Fed cuts in 2024.</em></li></ul><p>Deutsche Bank forsee two-quarters of negative economic growth in H1 of 2024:</p><ul><li>a "pretty sharp rise" in the unemployment rate to 4.6% by the middle of 2024</li><li>and thus&nbsp;a more aggressive cutting profile starting in mid-year</li><li>economic weakness will ease the pressure on inflation</li><li> and thus an initial 50 basis point cut at the June 2024 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting &amp; another&nbsp;125 bps of cuts over the balance of the year</li></ul><figure data-media-><img src="https://images.forexlive.com/images/fed%20dates%202024_id_198a8589-2235-4484-b06f-05c70a0bef41_original.jpg" alt="fed dates 2024" width="486" height="540" wrapper-="wrapper-" data-src="https://images.forexlive.com/images/fed%20dates%202024_id_198a8589-2235-4484-b06f-05c70a0bef41_original.jpg" /></figure><p><br></p><p><br></p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.