US Dollar Forecast: ‘Soft Landing’ Narrative Gains Traction Post FOMC

<p>The US Dollar has been on a roller-coaster ride, witnessing mixed performance in the aftermath of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As the week unfolded, the greenback showed signs of strength, hinting at a potential soft landing for the US economy. However, looming economic data and geopolitical uncertainties kept traders on edge, contributing to a complex market sentiment.</p>

<p>The US Dollar forecast remains neutral, but a series of key indicators are set to influence its trajectory moving forward. Among these indicators, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data captured significant attention. The latest figures indicated that the US economy is slowing down faster than expected, adding credibility to the ‘soft-landing’ narrative.</p>

<h2>Dollar Forecast: Poised for Mixed Week as PCE and ISM Data Shape Dollar Index (DXY) Movement; Focus Shifts to NFP Jobs and Technical Outlook.</h2>

<p>Investors closely monitored the Core PCE data, as it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The drop of 0.5% from the previous month’s reading has fueled hopes that the Fed may halt its current hiking cycle. Additionally, labor costs rose at their slowest pace in two years, potentially contributing to the weakness in the US Dollar on Friday.</p>

<figure><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="475" src="https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image1-17-1024×475.png" alt="" class="wp-image-8819" srcset="https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image1-17-1024×475.png 1024w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image1-17-300×139.png 300w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image1-17-768×356.png 768w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image1-17-1536×713.png 1536w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image1-17.png 1911w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption><strong>US 2Y AND 10Y YIELDS<br></strong>Source: dailyFX</figcaption></figure>

<p>However, the <a href="https://in.investing.com/indices/usdollar" target="_blank" data-type="URL" data-="data-" rel="noreferrer noopener">US Dollar Index</a> (DXY) experienced a two-week high before witnessing a pullback from the confluence area around the 102.00 handle. The greenback’s future remains uncertain, contingent on upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical developments.</p>

<p>As the week ahead unfolds, market participants are anxiously awaiting updated jobs and <a href="https://in.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227" target="_blank" data-type="URL" data-="data-" rel="noreferrer noopener">Non-Farm Payrolls</a> (NFP) data, providing valuable insights into the health of the US economy. Of particular interest is the Average Hourly Earnings data, which the Federal Reserve considers a key gauge in the ongoing inflation tussle.</p>

<p>Moreover, the ISM data, particularly the manufacturing sector’s performance, is expected to hold sway in the week ahead. Recent PMI data, both in the US and globally, displayed significant signs of a slowdown, raising concerns over a potential recession. A substantial miss to the downside in the ISM manufacturing data could reignite recessionary fears, albeit potentially short-lived.</p>

<figure><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="1024" height="475" src="https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image2-18-1024×475.png" alt="" class="wp-image-8820" srcset="https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image2-18-1024×475.png 1024w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image2-18-300×139.png 300w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image2-18-768×356.png 768w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image2-18.png 1109w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Source: dailyFX</figcaption></figure>

<p>Heading into the second month of Q3, the DXY is delicately poised as the ongoing narrative of a soft landing could end up hurting the US Dollar moving forward if US equities continue to rise. The longer this narrative continues, the more intriguing Q3 is expected to be, at least in the humble opinion of analysts. The upcoming week’s data releases will be crucial in either supporting or dispelling the ‘soft landing’ narrative.</p>

<p>In terms of technical analysis, the Dollar Index (DXY) has enjoyed further upside this week, running into a key confluence area around the 102.00 handle, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The movement of the DXY has been particularly noteworthy on Friday, with the daily candle on course to close as a doji candle following a significant upside rally. In theory, this hints at further downside in the week ahead. Adding to the uncertainty is the possibility of a death cross, as the 50-day moving average eyes a cross below the 100-day moving average, indicating potential bearish momentum.</p>

<figure><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="1024" height="475" src="https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image3-12-1024×475.png" alt="" class="wp-image-8821" srcset="https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image3-12-1024×475.png 1024w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image3-12-300×139.png 300w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image3-12-768×356.png 768w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image3-12-1536×712.png 1536w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image3-12.png 1913w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption><strong>USD DAILY CHART (DYX)<br></strong>Source: failyFX</figcaption></figure>

<p>A glance at the weekly timeframe indicates a potential doji candle close as well, supporting the narrative from the daily timeframe. The DXY is currently trading within a channel, raising the prospect of a push higher toward the channel’s upper end. However, clearing the 100-day moving average and the 102.00 confluence area are prerequisites for such an upward move.</p>

<p>On the other hand, a downward push from current prices faces resistance at the 100.84 handle before eyeing a test of the psychological 100.00 level. The potential for a significant pullback in the USD cannot be ignored, considering the prevailing uncertainties in the market. Therefore, traders must exercise caution and stay nimble to navigate the ever-changing Forex landscape successfully.</p>

<figure><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="1024" height="472" src="https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image4-8-1024×472.png" alt="" class="wp-image-8822" srcset="https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image4-8-1024×472.png 1024w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image4-8-300×138.png 300w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image4-8-768×354.png 768w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image4-8-1536×708.png 1536w, https://edge-forex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/image4-8.png 1914w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption><strong>USD WEEKLY CHART (DYX)<br></strong>Source: dailyFX</figcaption></figure>

<p>Market participants should also keep an eye on the evolving geopolitical situation, as global events can significantly impact the USD’s strength. Geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and central bank actions remain crucial drivers of currency movements, adding further complexity to the US Dollar forecast.</p>

<h2>Conclusion</h2>

<p>In conclusion, the US Dollar’s outlook remains uncertain as it navigates through a complex economic landscape. The ‘soft landing’ narrative gains traction, but uncertainties persist, keeping traders on their toes. The upcoming PCE, ISM, and NFP data will be pivotal in shaping the Dollar Index’s trajectory. As geopolitical events unfold, market participants must stay vigilant for any sudden shifts in sentiment that could lead to significant market swings. </p>

<p>In this environment, technical indicators play a crucial role in monitoring potential bearish or bullish movements. Traders must exercise caution and implement prudent risk management strategies to navigate the ever-changing Forex market successfully. As the US Dollar stands at a critical juncture, market participants should remain adaptive and flexible in their trading strategies to capitalize on potential opportunities and mitigate risks.</p>

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