US bank economists see a slower US economy, no recession, & 100bp of Fed cuts from May '24

<p>The latest from the American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee</p><ul><li>composed of 14 chief economists from some of North America’s largest banks</li></ul><p>Forecasts, in brief:</p><ul><li>real economic growth slowing to less than 1.0% annualized over the next three quarters</li><li>median committee forecast does not include any quarterly contractions</li><li>considerable concerns about a mild recession remain – risks center primarily around the delayed impact of monetary tightening, deteriorating credit availability, and high credit costs, but also include event risks such as a prolonged government shutdown or renewed flaring of geopolitical tensions. The group consensus is that near-term recession risks have come down but are still significant for 2024, approaching 50%.</li></ul><p>On the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC):</p><ul><li>will leave the target federal funds rate range unchanged until May 2024</li><li>then reduce it by 100 basis points before the end of 2024</li></ul><p>Bolding is mine. </p><p>From the report:</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.