UBS says Fed December meeting minutes are fuelling confirmation bias

<p>UBS is suggesting market participants are reading the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December meeting through a lens of their pre-existing views. I am not surprised by this at all. I struggling not to do so myself. </p><p>UBS:</p><ul><li>The minutes confirm whatever you wanted to think about the direction of US interest rates before the release.</li></ul><p>UBS are forecasting three cuts from the Fed this year, saying the minutes:</p><ul><li> are consistent with three rate cuts</li></ul><p>As to timing:</p><ul><li>starting later than March</li></ul><p>—</p><p>Earlier (not UBS):</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/doubleline-capitals-jeffrey-sherman-says-a-march-fomc-rate-cut-is-a-little-optimistic-20240104/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Sherman says a March FOMC rate cut is "a little optimistic"</a></li></ul><p>—</p><p>Also from earlier:</p><p>Pic via FedWatch</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.