UBS looking for a modest recession, rolling across segments, unlikely before year end

<p>A note from UBS' America's asset allocation folks says not expect a 'standard' recession:</p><ul><li>the manufacturing sector has already mildly contracted and could start recovering by year-end</li><li>the economy may instead experience rolling recessions across different segments</li></ul><p>Factors that are pushing back a recession onset include:</p><ul><li>central bank monetary policy is not yet restrictive enough to cause a contraction</li><li>fiscal policy is marginally expansionary and indeed is fuelling investment</li></ul><p>UBS say that:</p><ul><li>The net result could be a very modest recession overall with unusually low job losses, an outcome very similar to a soft landing</li></ul><p>As for timing:</p><ul><li>Such a recession is unlikely to start long before the end of the year</li></ul><p>Meanwhile:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-stocks-close-for-the-2nd-consecutive-day-20230711/" target="_self" rel="follow">US stocks close higher (and near highs for the day) for the 2nd consecutive day</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.