Traders Find New Indicators! These Unemployment Benefit Claims Give More Clear Indications

<p>&nbsp;The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to a still tight labor market.</p><p><br /></p><p>Initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 for the week ended Aug. 12, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 240,000 claims for the latest week.</p><p><br /></p><p>Claims surged in the week ending Aug. 5, with filings in Ohio accounting for most of the increase.</p><p><br /></p><p>Although the labor market is slowing, with job gains in July the second smallest since December 2020, things are generally tight. Unemployment rates are at levels last seen more than 50 years ago. There were 1.6 jobs offered for every unemployed person in June.</p><p><br /></p><p>Minutes of the Federal Reserve's July 25-26 meeting published Thursday indicated that there were "signs that demand and supply are becoming more balanced," The policymakers "considered that further progress toward balancing demand and supply in the labor market is needed, and they expect that additional contraction in labor market conditions will occur over time.”</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>The US central bank since March 2022 has increased the overnight interest rate by 525 basis points to the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Most economists believe that the fastest cycle of rate hikes by the Fed in more than 40 years is likely over, given the recent restraint in inflation.</p><p><br /></p><p>A resilient labor market supports the economy, by boosting retail sales and home construction.</p><p><br /></p><p>Economists have lowered their forecasts for a recession this year, and more are embracing the idea that the Fed can guide the economy in a better direction.</p><p><br /></p><p>Continuing claims cited rose by 32,000 to 1.716 million during the week ending Aug. 5, the claims report showed.</p><p><br /></p><p>At current levels, persistent claims are still low by historical standards, indicating that some laid-off workers are experiencing short periods of unemployment.</p>