The Week Ahead 14th – 18th August: Great expectations for FOMC minutes

<p>Welcome to Key to Markets preview of the Week Ahead.</p>
<h2>Currency Pair Performance</h2>
<p>5-day performance as of <strong>August 10, 2023. 19:00 GMT.</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24912" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CHART-1-1.png" alt="" width="742" height="323" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CHART-1-1.png 742w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CHART-1-1-300×131.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 742px) 100vw, 742px" /></p>
<p>Source: finviz.com</p>
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<h2>10 Big Stories Last Week</h2>
<p>In case you missed it…</p>
<p><strong>US CPI</strong> rose 0.2% MoM in July (as expected), pushing the YoY up to 3.2% (from 3.0% in June).</p>
<p><strong>Low volatility.</strong> Daily FX movements were minimal across a typically slow August trading week.</p>
<p><strong>‘Mr Yen’ says no intervention.</strong> Commentary from former official Eisuke Sakakibara sent JPY lower.</p>
<p><strong>USD dips.</strong> The softer US inflation stats meant EUR and other majors rose slightly vs the dollar.</p>
<p><strong>Silver slumps.</strong> XAG fell 4 days running but remains broadly locked around the 24 handle.</p>
<p><strong>Brent’s rally.</strong> BCO continued its multi-week rally to touch resistance at $88 pb.</p>
<p><strong>China deflation.</strong> China CPI lifted to -0.3% y/y (from -0.4%) while PPI fell further to -4.4% from -4.0%.</p>
<p><strong>Disney earnings.</strong> Disney+ Streaming Subs Miss but stock rose after a surprise price hike.</p>
<p><strong>Alibaba beats.</strong> The Chinese retail giant topped expectations with its highest revenues since 2021</p>
<p><strong>Paypal crypto.</strong> PYPL has developed its own ‘stablecoin’ to compete with Tether and USDC.</p>
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<h2>Chart of the Week</h2>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24915" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CHART-2-1.png" alt="" width="800" height="766" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CHART-2-1.png 800w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CHART-2-1-300×287.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CHART-2-1-768×735.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /></p>
<p>Source: Eddie Donmez / FRED</p>
<p>Credit Card Debt In The U.S Has Hit $1 TRILLION For The Time Ever.</p>
<p>The Average Interest Rate On That Debt Is An Eye-Watering 22%.</p>
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<h2>5 Things to Watch This Week</h2>
<p><strong>1. FOMC Minutes</strong><br />
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its last meeting, where it raised rates by 25 bps. They are a bit stale since the decision was made before higher July inflation was reported. However, the next Fed meeting is not until late September. The USD has grinded higher since the report with the dollar index comfortably above 100.</p>
<p><strong>2. Eurozone GDP</strong><br />
EURUSD has declined over the past few weeks despite a rate hike from the ECB on expectations the central bank is nearing the end of its rate hikes. The reason for expecting less rate hikes is weakness in the Eurozone economy so stronger than expected GDP data could dispel this notion and help lift the euro.</p>
<p><strong>3. RBNZ rate decision</strong><br />
NZD/USD is testing 2023 lows at the 0.60 round number as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand remains on hold from rate hikes. Another decision to hold, all else equal could help a breakdown in the currency pair.</p>
<p><strong>4. Walmart earnings</strong><br />
Q2 earnings season is nearing a close, but there are still reports from the major US retailers to go. Walmart is so large it acts as a benchmark for the US consumer and economy.</p>
<p><strong>5. Tencent earnings</strong><br />
As Beijing eases off on its fight with the country’s big tech companies, Tencent could be well placed to grow earnings (as Alibaba just did) but weakness in the Chinese economy could put a ceiling on any gains.</p>
<p><strong>Economic Calendar Highlights</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24918" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CHART-3-1.png" alt="" width="871" height="772" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CHART-3-1.png 871w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CHART-3-1-300×266.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CHART-3-1-768×681.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 871px) 100vw, 871px" /></p>
<p>Source: FXStreet.com</p>
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<h2>Technical Analysis:</h2>
<p>TA of the major asset classes (Forex – Commodities – Indices…).</p>
<p><strong>EUR/USD (Daily Candlestick Chart)</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24922" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_.png" alt="" width="1916" height="867" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_.png 1916w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_-300×136.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_-1024×463.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_-768×348.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/EURUSD_-1536×695.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1916px) 100vw, 1916px" /><br />
EUR/USD is in a weak uptrend, making two lower highs and one lower low while above the 50 SMA.<br />
Price reversed sharply lower off resistance at 1.106 but has so far held the 50 day MA as support. Next support is at 1.08 but likely would mean a change of trend beneath the moving average. A close back over 1.10 should imply the uptrend will continue.</p>
<p><strong>GBP/USD (Daily Candlestick Chart)</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24925" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GBPUSD_.png" alt="" width="1916" height="867" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GBPUSD_.png 1916w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GBPUSD_-300×136.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GBPUSD_-1024×463.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GBPUSD_-768×348.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GBPUSD_-1536×695.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1916px) 100vw, 1916px" /><br />
GBP/USD is in a new downtrend, forming lower lows and lower highs.<br />
Price fell from 1.28 after briefly touching a new 2-week high and is now testing support at 1.265 where a breakdown appears likely as downside momentum accelerates.</p>
<p><strong>USD/JPY (Daily Candlestick Chart)</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24928" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/USDJPY.png" alt="" width="1916" height="867" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/USDJPY.png 1916w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/USDJPY-300×136.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/USDJPY-1024×463.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/USDJPY-768×348.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/USDJPY-1536×695.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1916px) 100vw, 1916px" /><br />
USD/JPY is in an uptrend making higher highs and lows above the 50 SMA.<br />
Price appears to have ended its correction lower with the uptrend resuming. The final test will be the yearly high at 145 before the fresh leg of the long term uptrend can be confirmed.</p>
<p><strong>Gold (Daily Candlestick Chart)</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24931" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XAUUSD_.png" alt="" width="1916" height="867" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XAUUSD_.png 1916w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XAUUSD_-300×136.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XAUUSD_-1024×463.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XAUUSD_-768×348.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XAUUSD_-1536×695.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1916px) 100vw, 1916px" /><br />
XAU/USD is in a downtrend, making lower lows and lower highs while below the 50 SMA.<br />
Gold is weakening after sustaining a break back beneath the 50 DMA. It remains inside the broader sideways price range between 1900 and 1980.</p>
<p><strong>Brent Oil (Daily Candlestick Chart)</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24934" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XBRENT_.png" alt="" width="1916" height="867" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XBRENT_.png 1916w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XBRENT_-300×136.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XBRENT_-1024×463.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XBRENT_-768×348.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XBRENT_-1536×695.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1916px) 100vw, 1916px" /><br />
XBRENT is in an uptrend with higher highs and lows above the 50 SMA.<br />
Crude oil reached its highest since January with Brent touching the 87 level. Price is now well above the 50 SMA and is overdue a downward correction but the trend is still firmly higher.</p>
<p><strong>US500 (Daily Candlestick Chart)</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24937" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XUS500_.png" alt="" width="1916" height="867" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XUS500_.png 1916w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XUS500_-300×136.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XUS500_-1024×463.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XUS500_-768×348.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/XUS500_-1536×695.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1916px) 100vw, 1916px" /><br />
XUS500 is in an uptrend, making higher highs but with one lower low above the 50 SMA.<br />
The price is so far holding above support formed by the June highs at 4450, with the 50 DMA just below sustaining the uptrend. Next support lies near 4400 but that could mean the trend has turned down.</p>
<p>Thank you very much for reading – and have a great week trading!</p>
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<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/the-week-ahead-14th-18th-august-great-expectations-for-fomc-minutes-24911/">The Week Ahead 14th – 18th August: Great expectations for FOMC minutes</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>