The Week Ahead 13th – 17th November: will the US inflation data confirm that the rate peak has been reached?

<p>Welcome to Key To Markets preview of the Week Ahead</p>
<h2>Currency Pair Performance</h2>
<p>5-day performance as of<strong> November 9, 2023. 10:00 GMT</strong>.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-26941" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CHART-1.png" alt="" width="645" height="293" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CHART-1.png 645w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CHART-1-300×136.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 645px) 100vw, 645px" /></p>
<p>Source: finviz.com</p>
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<h2>10 Big Stories Last Week</h2>
<p>In case you missed it…</p>
<p><strong>The Nasdaq100 rose for nine straight days.</strong> The US tech-heavy index recorded its longest winning run in two years, boosted by the narrative that the Fed was at or near peak rates.</p>
<p><strong>Disney pledged $2 billion more in cost cuts.</strong> Disney beat profit forecasts but missed on revenue as ad revenue in the streaming segment narrowed. Bob Iger pledged to expand the cost-cutting plan by a further $2 billion.</p>
<p><strong>USD/JPY remained on intervention watch.</strong> The pair fell on mixed Fed narrative before rebounding to 151.00, a level where Japanese authorities may step in to support the yen.</p>
<p><strong>RBA left raised interest rates to 4.35%.</strong> The RBA lifted rates by 25 basis points to 4.35% but hinted that it had ended its tightening cycle, sending AUD/USD lower.</p>
<p><strong>China fell back into deflation.</strong> The world’s second-largest economy saw inflation fall -0.2% YoY in October, raising concerns over the fragility of its economic recovery.</p>
<p><strong>Oil fell to a 3-month low.</strong> Concerns over the health of the Chinese economy and a downward revision by the IEA to the US demand outlook sent oil prices below $80.00.</p>
<p><strong>WeWork filed for bankruptcy.</strong> The co-working space provider filed for bankruptcy with a Federal Court in New Jersey as it seeks to restructure $13 billion in lease obligations.</p>
<p><strong>Uber earnings missed Q3 forecasts.</strong> Revenue rose 11% annually to $9.29 billion, and EPS was $0.10c, below the $0.12c forecast. Guidance for gross bookings beat analysts’ expectations.</p>
<p><strong>ARM falls after the first post-IPO earnings.</strong> The chip maker’s current quarter guidance of EPS $0.21-$0.28 on revenue of $720M -$800M was slightly lighter than Wall Street’s expectations of $0.28c.</p>
<p><strong>UBS posted its first quarterly loss since 2017.</strong> The banking giant reported a $785 million loss due to the cost of integrating Credit Suisse.</p>
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<h2>Chart of the Week</h2>
<p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-26944" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CHART-2.png" alt="" width="651" height="316" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CHART-2.png 651w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CHART-2-300×146.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 651px) 100vw, 651px" /></p>
<p>Oil prices are on track to fall around 6% this week, marking oil’s third straight weekly decline, taking the price below $80.00 per barrel for the first time in 3-months. Oil prices have fallen around 13% since the week starting October 22nd.</p>
<p>The move lower in oil prices comes as concerns are fading that the Israel-Hamas conflict will disrupt supplies from the Middle East. Instead, oil traders’ focus has shifted to fundamentals, and the outlook for demand is looking weak.</p>
<p>China’s economic recovery is stalling, refining margins are shrinking, US oil stockpiles are swelling and Europe appears to be heading for a recession. This week, the EIA forecast that US oil demand will fall, with petroleum consumption dropping by 300k barrels compared with an estimated 100k barrel gain in the October forecast.</p>
<p>“Ample supply…..and stagnating demand creates an overall soft fundamental backdrop,” said Norbet Ruecker, an analyst at Julius Baer &amp; Co. Ltd.</p>
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<h2>5 Things to Watch This Week</h2>
<p><strong>1. US Inflation data</strong><br />
US inflation will be released on Tuesday, November 14. Consumer prices rose 3.7% YoY in the 12 months to September, which was ahead of forecasts, as rising oil prices boosted the price of petrol at the pumps. Economists expect CPI to cool again in October, with monthly CPI rising just 0.1%. The inflation reading comes after the Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold at a 22-year high and hinted that it could be at the end of its hiking cycle.</p>
<p><strong>2. Walmart earnings</strong><br />
Walmart is due to release earnings on Thursday, November 16. Wall Street forecasts EPS of $1.51 on revenue of $158.4 billion. Earnings come as the share price hit an all-time high last week. The retailer’s value focus has attracted shoppers, including high-income households, in an inflationary environment. Even as consumers have pulled back from discretionary purchases, demand for consumer essentials has remained strong. Walmart is the largest grocer in the country, making half of its revenue from groceries, a consumer essential.</p>
<p><strong>3. UK Inflation</strong><br />
UK inflation will be released on Wednesday, November 15, and could see a significant cooling. Ofgem, the energy regulator, lowered its price cap in October, which could help to bring inflation down. Consumer prices cooled to 6.7% YoY in September, which is over three times the BoE’s target level. The central bank sees inflation easing to just below 5% by the end of the year.</p>
<p><strong>4. China retail sales</strong><br />
Chinese retail sales data comes hot on the heels of singles day and amid questions over the health of the economic recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. Retail sales grew at a solid pace of 5.5% annually in September, thanks in part to the stimulus measures from authorities. However, inflation data showed that consumer prices fell -0.2% YoY, indicating a weak demand environment. The markets will be keen to see whether consumption remains robust in October.</p>
<p><strong>5. Target Q3 earnings</strong><br />
Target is due to release earnings on November 15th. Wall Street expects EPS of $1.47 on revenue of $25.26 billion. This marks a year-over-year decline in earnings and revenue amid ongoing pressure on the US consumer and a more challenging economic backdrop. While American consumers have been incredibly resilient, they still face several headwinds. Target has been hit harder by shoplifters, citing retail crime as a reason for closing nine stores just last month. The share price trades -27% YTD underperforming the market.</p>
<p><strong>Economic Calendar Highlights</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-26947" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CHART-3.png" alt="" width="684" height="554" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CHART-3.png 684w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CHART-3-300×243.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 684px) 100vw, 684px" /></p>
<p>Source: FXStreet.com</p>
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<h2>Technical Analysis:</h2>
<p>TA of the major asset classes (Forex – Commodities – Indices…).</p>
<p><strong>EUR/USD (Daily Candlestick Chart)</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-26950" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/EURUSD_.png" alt="" width="2556" height="1227" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/EURUSD_.png 2556w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/EURUSD_-300×144.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/EURUSD_-1024×492.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/EURUSD_-768×369.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/EURUSD_-1536×737.png 1536w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/EURUSD_-2048×983.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2556px) 100vw, 2556px" /><br />
EUR/USD is in an uptrend forming higher highs and lows above the 50 SMA. RSI is bullish but not overbought. A bearish flag is still in play, implying a possible break below the lows at 1.043. The lows at 1.067 and then the 50 SMA support this fragile uptrend with the next upside target around 1.08.</p>
<p><strong>GBP/USD (Daily Candlestick Chart)</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-26953" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/GBPUSD_.png" alt="" width="2556" height="1227" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/GBPUSD_.png 2556w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/GBPUSD_-300×144.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/GBPUSD_-1024×492.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/GBPUSD_-768×369.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/GBPUSD_-1536×737.png 1536w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/GBPUSD_-2048×983.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2556px) 100vw, 2556px" /><br />
GBP/USD is in a correction within a downtrend, forming equal lows and highs and above the 50 SMA. RSI is neutral. Price made a fakeout above the former 250-pip range between 1.205 and 1.23. A bullish engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart has found resistance at the 50-week SMA.</p>
<p><strong>USD/JPY (Daily Candlestick Chart)</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-26956" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/USDJPY_.png" alt="" width="2556" height="1227" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/USDJPY_.png 2556w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/USDJPY_-300×144.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/USDJPY_-1024×492.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/USDJPY_-768×369.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/USDJPY_-1536×737.png 1536w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/USDJPY_-2048×983.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2556px) 100vw, 2556px" /><br />
USD/JPY is in an uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows above the 50 SMA. RSI is neutral. Support is being held at 149 but price is yet to decisively break the 2022 (multi-year) peak at 151.8. A hanging man pattern on the weekly chart at a round number is bearish.</p>
<p><strong>Gold (Daily Candlestick Chart)</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-26959" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/XAUUSD_.png" alt="" width="2556" height="1227" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/XAUUSD_.png 2556w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/XAUUSD_-300×144.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/XAUUSD_-1024×492.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/XAUUSD_-768×369.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/XAUUSD_-1536×737.png 1536w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/XAUUSD_-2048×983.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2556px) 100vw, 2556px" /><br />
XAU/USD is the correction of an uptrend, forming lower highs and lows above the 50 SMA. RSI is neutral. Price has turned lower after completing a short term head and shoulders top. Price is retesting broken resistance and now support at 143 from the late August and September peaks.</p>
<p><strong>Brent Oil (Daily Candlestick Chart)</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-26962" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BRENT_.png" alt="" width="2556" height="1227" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BRENT_.png 2556w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BRENT_-300×144.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BRENT_-1024×492.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BRENT_-768×369.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BRENT_-1536×737.png 1536w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BRENT_-2048×983.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2556px) 100vw, 2556px" /><br />
XBRENT is in a downtrend, making lower lows and highs below the 50 SMA. RSI is oversold under 35. The aforementioned uptrend line connecting the lows since July has broken, implying a major top with further downside.</p>
<p><strong>US500 (Daily Candlestick Chart)</strong></p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-26965" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/SP500_.png" alt="" width="2556" height="1227" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/SP500_.png 2556w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/SP500_-300×144.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/SP500_-1024×492.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/SP500_-768×369.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/SP500_-1536×737.png 1536w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/SP500_-2048×983.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2556px) 100vw, 2556px" /><br />
XUS500 is in the correction of a downtrend, making lower highs and lows above the 50 SMA. RSI is bullish but not overbought. Price is rebounding off resistance at 4390/4400. A falling wedge pattern is bullish and supports the idea of a correction of the long-term uptrend.</p>
<p>Thank you very much for reading – and have a great week trading!</p>
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<p>The post <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/the-week-ahead-13th-17th-november-will-the-us-inflation-data-confirm-that-the-rate-peak-has-been-reached-26940/">The Week Ahead 13th – 17th November: will the US inflation data confirm that the rate peak has been reached?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>