The S&P 500 has followed the seasonal patterns so far in 2023, so what about Q4?

<p>We're closing out September with poor returns for equity markets. That shouldn't have been a big surprise if you follow the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/september-seasonals-highlight-a-painful-backdrop-for-stock-markets-20230828/" target="_blank" rel="follow">seasonals I posted</a> in late August.</p><p>In general, seasonals are more valuable than they're given credit for. They really shouldn't work in an efficient market but they do. At worst, they're another tool to have in the toolbox.</p><p>With that in mind, here's a great chart from <a href="https://twitter.com/WayneWhaley1136" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wayne Whaley </a>who highlights that in years where stocks have been strong (S&amp;P 500 still up 19% this year) and have a poor September (it's been a rough one so far), the fourth quarter tends to post strong gains. The pattern is a perfect 8 wins and 0 losses dating back to 1961 with an average gain of 8.56% from Oct 1 through year end.</p><p>On the fundamental side, I think we will need some clear softening in the US economy and undershoots in core inflation but it always looks bleak after a bad month.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.