The IndeX Files 09-06-2020
<h2>US Jobs Number Raises Recovery Hopes</h2>
<p>While global equities benchmarks remain broadly supported, upside momentum has stalled a little this week following a bumper US jobs report on Friday. The NFP for May came in at a record 2.5 million. This reading was in stark contrast to the -7.5 million figure expected and reflects a wildly impressive rebound from the prior month’s -20.5 million reading. The unemployment rate was seen recovering from 14.7% to 13.3%, against expectations of an increase to 19.4%. These data sets, which come as a great surprise, have raised questions over the current recovery forecasts for the US economy, suggesting that it might be quicker than currently forecast.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, in the latest set of forecasts released by the World Bank this week, the group now forecasts economic growth to contract by 5.2% in the deepest global downturn since World War II. Furthermore, the World Bank warns that this is assuming its baselines scenario of economic and social distancing measures easing in June, saying that should these measures be extended for a further 3 months the downturn could be as deep as 10%.</p>
<p>The Fed announced an adjustment to its main street lending program ahead of the FOMC meeting this week. The program, which aims to support small and mid-sized businesses and has yet to start, will offer $600 billion in corporate loans to businesses which usually access credit via bank loans. While no further easing is expected from the Fed on Wednesday, the market will expect to hear further details regarding this and its other programs.</p>
<h2>Technical Views</h2>
<p><strong>DAX (Bullish above 1186.85)</strong></p>
<p>From a technical viewpoint. The DAX has broken back above the yearly pivot at 12359.64 and is now challenging the bull channel top and structural resistance at the 12916.11 level which is holding for now. With VWAP positive, bias remains bullish while the 11861.85 level holds.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter wp-image-44952 size-full" title="The IndeX Files 09-06-2020" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.45.27.png" alt="The IndeX Files 09-06-2020" width="2306" height="1548" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.45.27.png 2306w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.45.27-300×201.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.45.27-1024×687.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.45.27-768×516.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.45.27-1536×1031.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.45.27-2048×1375.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2306px) 100vw, 2306px" /></p>
<p><strong>S&P500 (Bullish above 2977.75)</strong></p>
<p>From a technical viewpoint. The S&P continues to run higher along the underside of the broken bullish channel. With VWAP positive, bear term bias remains bullish while price holds above the 2977.75 yearly pivot with the current 2020 highs at 3391.75 the next upside target.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter wp-image-44951 size-full" title="The IndeX Files 09-06-2020" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.41.31.png" alt="The IndeX Files 09-06-2020" width="2322" height="1558" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.41.31.png 2322w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.41.31-300×201.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.41.31-1024×687.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.41.31-768×515.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.41.31-1536×1031.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.41.31-2048×1374.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2322px) 100vw, 2322px" /></p>
<p><strong>FTSE (Bullish above 6000)</strong></p>
<p>From a technical viewpoint. The FTSE has broken above the bull channel top though has stalled just ahead of testing the 6543.4 level. With VWAP positive, bias remains bullish here with focus on a move back up to the yearly S1 at 6849.6 next. Monthly pivot at 6000 remains the key downside support in the near term.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter wp-image-44950 size-full" title="The IndeX Files 09-06-2020" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.38.18.png" alt="The IndeX Files 09-06-2020" width="2328" height="1550" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.38.18.png 2328w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.38.18-300×200.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.38.18-1024×682.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.38.18-768×511.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.38.18-1536×1023.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.38.18-2048×1364.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2328px) 100vw, 2328px" /></p>
<p><strong>NIKKEI (Bullish above 22335.9)</strong></p>
<p>From a technical viewpoint. The NIKKEI continues to hold above the yearly pivot at 22335.9 from the breakout last week. With VWAP positive, near term bias remains bullish while above here, targeting the yearly R1 at 25286.5 next. Any move below here will turn focus to the rising trend line support ahead of the monthly pivot at 21084.1.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter wp-image-44949 size-full" title="The IndeX Files 09-06-2020" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.34.52.png" alt="The IndeX Files 09-06-2020" width="2334" height="1548" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.34.52.png 2334w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.34.52-300×199.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.34.52-1024×679.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.34.52-768×509.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.34.52-1536×1019.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-09-at-09.34.52-2048×1358.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2334px) 100vw, 2334px" /></p>
<p><strong><i>Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.</i></strong></p>
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