The flow of US Data Dashes Hopes of a Pause in the Federal Reserve's Tightening

Gold investors appear to have become weary of waiting for low interest rates (as central banks show no indication of halting their current tightening course), developments in the US banking stress narrative or geopolitical tensions that would ultimately validate their optimistic outlook for gold's growth potential. On Wednesday, gold accelerated its decline, and the test of the $1900 per troy ounce level loomed on the horizon:In early May, the price of gold rebounded from its historical peak, forming a double top. In mid-June, after a tense struggle between sellers and buyers, it exited the medium-term ascending channel (white parallel lines). Currently, a short-term bearish corridor is taking shape (red lines). The chart also reveals a broader ascending channel (orange parallel lines). Its lower boundary, intersecting with the lower boundary of the short-term bearish channel, which corresponds to approximately the $1880 per troy ounce area, may form an interesting support zone where the price could reverse and move upward again. Clearly, one of the three drivers mentioned earlier must come into play: stress in the banking sector due to growing interest rate disparity between banks’ assets and liabilities, signals of easing core inflation, or a new wave of geopolitical tensions.Yesterday's comments from ECB officials in Sintra showed that hoping for soft rhetoric today from the heads of the US, EU, and Japanese central banks is unlikely. The wording contained a very clear hint at a rate hike: signals of slowing core inflation in the EU are unconvincing, so a pause in July is unlikely. Based on this, one can assume that Lagarde, Powell, and the head of the Bank of Japan, Kuroda, will develop this idea today since core inflation is indeed currently holding at a relatively high level and receding slowly:Incoming data from the US effectively quells market's concerns that central banks are making policy mistakes. Durable goods orders in the US (a strong indicator of household income expectations) rose by 1.7% in the month, surpassing the forecast of -1%. Consumer confidence was directly confirmed by the Conference Board's index, which reached 109.7 points in June, surpassing the forecast of 104 points. Concerns about inflation were amplified by real estate market data: the price index increased by 0.7% in the month, exceeding the forecast of 0.3%. Additionally, API data showed strong demand for fuel as crude oil inventories declined by 2.4 million barrels, compared to a forecast of 1.467 million.The dollar has turned higher against major currencies ahead of Powell's speech in Sintra. On the technical chart, it can be seen that the dollar index exited the bearish channel, rebounded after reaching its upper boundary, and continued to rise. The medium-term resistance is located in the range of 103.50-103.70, where the corresponding trendline was previously formed by the price: