Speculator Extremes: Heating Oil, Bitcoin, Corn & Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

<p><strong>By <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/"><u>InvestMacro</u></a></strong></p>
<p>The latest update for the weekly <a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot/">Commitment of Traders</a> (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on <strong>September 26th</strong>.</p>
<p>This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. <strong>Extreme positioning</strong> in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying <a href="https://investmacro.com/markets/">market</a>.</p>
<p>To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">data table</a> or <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-leaders/">cot leaders table</a>)</p>
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<h2><strong>Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:</strong></h2>
<h3><strong>Heating Oil</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HO_Extremes-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="dce0e9" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #dce0e9;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215894" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HO_Extremes-2.png" alt="" width="957" height="694" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HO_Extremes-2.png 957w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HO_Extremes-2-143×104.png 143w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HO_Extremes-2-150×109.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HO_Extremes-2-768×557.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px" /></a><br />
The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is currently at a 98.6 percent score of its 3-year range.</p>
<p>The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 18.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 42,127 net contracts this week with a change of -774 contract in the weekly speculator bets.</p>
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<h4>Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:</h4>
<p><strong>Speculators</strong>, classified as non-commercial traders by the <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/">CFTC</a>, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.</p>
<p>These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.</p>
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<h3><strong>Bitcoin</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XBT_Extremes-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="dbe0e9" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #dbe0e9;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215895" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XBT_Extremes-2.png" alt="" width="957" height="694" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XBT_Extremes-2.png 957w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XBT_Extremes-2-143×104.png 143w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XBT_Extremes-2-150×109.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XBT_Extremes-2-768×557.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px" /></a><br />
The Bitcoin speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is now at a 93.4 percent score of its 3-year range.</p>
<p>The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 37.7 this week. The speculator position registered 1,794 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 197 contracts in speculator bets.</p>
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<h3><strong>Cocoa Futures</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/CC_Extremes-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="dce0e9" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #dce0e9;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215896" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/CC_Extremes-2.png" alt="" width="957" height="694" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/CC_Extremes-2.png 957w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/CC_Extremes-2-143×104.png 143w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/CC_Extremes-2-150×109.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/CC_Extremes-2-768×557.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px" /></a><br />
The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 90.1 percent score of its 3-year range.</p>
<p>The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 1.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 78,538 net contracts this week with a change of -9,724 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.</p>
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<h3><strong>3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SR3_Extremes-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="dce1e9" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #dce1e9;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215897" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SR3_Extremes-2.png" alt="" width="957" height="694" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SR3_Extremes-2.png 957w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SR3_Extremes-2-143×104.png 143w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SR3_Extremes-2-150×109.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SR3_Extremes-2-768×557.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px" /></a><br />
The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 89.1 percent score of its 3-year range.</p>
<p>The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 18.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 317,146 net contracts this week with a change of -182,231 contracts in the speculator bets.</p>
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<h3><strong>Bloomberg Commodity Index</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/AW_Extremes.png"><img data-dominant-color="dbe0e8" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #dbe0e8;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215898" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/AW_Extremes.png" alt="" width="957" height="694" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/AW_Extremes.png 957w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/AW_Extremes-143×104.png 143w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/AW_Extremes-150×109.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/AW_Extremes-768×557.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px" /></a><br />
The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 86.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.7 this week.</p>
<p>The speculator position was -5,137 net contracts this week with a change of 1,280 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.</p>
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<h2><strong>This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:</strong></h2>
<h3><strong>Corn</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/C_Extremes-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="dde1e9" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #dde1e9;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215899" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/C_Extremes-2.png" alt="" width="957" height="694" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/C_Extremes-2.png 957w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/C_Extremes-2-143×104.png 143w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/C_Extremes-2-150×109.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/C_Extremes-2-768×557.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px" /></a><br />
The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.</p>
<p>The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -118,540 net contracts this week with a change of -17,307 contracts in the speculator bets.</p>
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<h3><strong>Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TN_Extremes.png"><img data-dominant-color="dce1e9" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #dce1e9;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215900" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TN_Extremes.png" alt="" width="957" height="694" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TN_Extremes.png 957w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TN_Extremes-143×104.png 143w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TN_Extremes-150×109.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TN_Extremes-768×557.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px" /></a><br />
The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 4.1 percent score of its 3-year range.</p>
<p>The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.3 this week. The speculator position was -198,126 net contracts this week with a change of -61,389 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.</p>
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<h3><strong>2-Year Bond</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TU_Extremes-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="dde1ea" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #dde1ea;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215901" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TU_Extremes-2.png" alt="" width="957" height="694" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TU_Extremes-2.png 957w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TU_Extremes-2-143×104.png 143w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TU_Extremes-2-150×109.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/TU_Extremes-2-768×557.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px" /></a><br />
The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 4.5 percent score of its 3-year range.</p>
<p>The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,210,300 net contracts this week with a change of 31,163 contracts in the speculator bets.</p>
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<h3><strong>Palladium</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PA_Extremes-2.png"><img data-dominant-color="dce1e9" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #dce1e9;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215902" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PA_Extremes-2.png" alt="" width="957" height="694" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PA_Extremes-2.png 957w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PA_Extremes-2-143×104.png 143w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PA_Extremes-2-150×109.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PA_Extremes-2-768×557.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px" /></a><br />
The Palladium speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Palladium speculator level is at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.</p>
<p>The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.0 this week. The speculator position was -10,302 net contracts this week with a change of -72 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.</p>
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<h3><strong>Japanese Yen</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/JY_Extremes.png"><img data-dominant-color="dce1e9" data-has-transparency="true" style="–dominant-color: #dce1e9;" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="has-transparency aligncenter size-full wp-image-215903" src="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/JY_Extremes.png" alt="" width="957" height="694" srcset="https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/JY_Extremes.png 957w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/JY_Extremes-143×104.png 143w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/JY_Extremes-150×109.png 150w, https://investmacro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/JY_Extremes-768×557.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px" /></a><br />
Finally, the Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 5.0 percent score of its 3-year range.</p>
<p>The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.0 this week. The speculator position was -109,512 net contracts this week with a change of -7,893 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.</p>
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<p>Article <strong>By InvestMacro</strong> – <b>Receive our weekly <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-newsletter/">COT Newsletter</a></b></p>
<p><strong>*</strong><a href="https://www.investmacro.com/cot-reports/">COT Report</a>: The <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-data/">COT data</a>, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.</p>
<p>The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to <a href="https://investmacro.com/cot-reports/">commercial hedgers</a> (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their <a href="https://investmacro.com/open-interest-analysis/">open interest</a> (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm">here</a>.</p>