S&P Weakens On China Credit Wobble

Stocks Pause at HighsUS stocks are softening from the week’s highs as we head into the US open on Tuesday. Following a solid rally off the October lows which saw the S&P gaining more than 12%, the move has stalled into a test of the YTD highs at 4602.90. The shift in trader’s expectations regarding the Fed has been the main driver of the move higher in recent weeks and months. With the Fed now widely expected to hold rates unchanged through year-end before cutting rates early next year, USD has come off considerably. This backdrop has been highly favourable to risk assets.China ConcernsHowever, this week, we’ve seen USD recovering some of this lost ground due in part to concerns over the health of the Chinese economy. Further data weakness out of China recently has put fresh focus on the ailing economy. Added to this, a fresh wave of concern over a pneumonia-related viral outbreak in China has further leaned on sentiment towards the world’s second largest economy.Moody Cuts China Credit OutlookThis week, Moody’s cut China’s sovereign debt rating outlook to negative from stable.  The group cited concerns over “structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth”. With its credit outlook downgraded, China is now at risk of having its actual credit rating downgraded if the situation doesn’t improve.US Jobs Data on FridayLooking ahead this week, traders will be looking to the latest set of US jobs data for a glimpse into the health of the US economy. If we see further weakness on the back of the prior month’s data undershoot, this should drive USD lower near-term allowing stocks room to rise, offsetting concerns from falling employment.Technical ViewsS&P 500The market is currently stalled at the YTD highs and with momentum studies weakening, risks of a correction lower are growing. 4514.78 will be the key support for bulls to defend in order to keep further upside in focus. If broken, there is room for a much deeper correction down towards 4375 next.