RBA rate hike incoming on November 7 – will they hike again in December?

<p>The inflation data earlier today has made a November 7 rate hike very likely from the Reserve Bank of Australia. </p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-q3-2023-headline-cpi-12-qq-vs-11-expected-20231025/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">Australian Q3 2023 Headline CPI +1.2% q/q (vs. 1.1% expected)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/australia-market-is-rapidly-pricing-in-a-november-rate-hike-after-surging-inflation-data-20231025/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">Australia – market is rapidly pricing in a November rate hike after surging inflation data</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/anz-forecasts-a-25bp-rba-interest-rate-hike-on-november-7-previous-forecast-was-december-20231025/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">ANZ forecasts a 25bp RBA interest rate hike on November 7 (previous forecast was December)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/commonwealth-bank-of-australia-forecast-a-25bp-rba-rate-hike-on-november-7-20231025/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Commonwealth Bank of Australia forecast a 25bp RBA rate hike on November 7</a></li></ul><p>+25bp in November seems a done deal to me. A pause again seems very unlikely given the forthright comment in the latest RBA minutes:</p><ul><li>“the Board has a low tolerance for a slower return of inflation to target than currently expected"</li></ul><p>And how hawkish new Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock has sounded. Bullock gets another go on the microphone tomorrow BTW:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/reserve-bank-of-australia-governor-bullock-will-be-appearing-in-parliament-after-cpi-data-20231024/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will be appearing in parliament after CPI data</a></li></ul><p>Could it be +50bp in November? Or +25 then another +25 at the December (5th) meeting? Given the RBA response to rising inflation, i.e. behind the curve for much of the way and appearing to have dropped back again, I am going with +25 in November and then we wait for February. The nagging doubt at the back of my mind is the hawkish Bullock though. </p><p>I've posted this before but there has been a big change in RBA meeting dates announced for 2024. Instead of 11 meetings a year the Bank will now meet 8 times only (Fibonacci folks will nod sagely here 😉 ). </p><p>The dates ahead are:</p><ul><li>November 7</li><li>December 5</li></ul><p>then into 2024:</p><ul><li>5–6 February</li><li>18–19 March</li><li>6–7 May</li><li>17–18 June</li><li>5–6 August</li><li>23–24 September</li><li>4–5 November</li><li>9–10 December</li></ul><p>Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock RBA 23 October 2023. </p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.