RBA policy decision due Tuesday, 3 October 2023 (Sydney time) – "a certain hold"

<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time:</p><ul><li>0330 GMT, 2330 US Eastern time </li></ul><p>Westpac expects:</p><ul><li>We retain our call that RBA will remain on hold until next August when the first rate cut can be expected</li><li>We are certain that the Board will decide to continue the pause that began at the July meeting.

The Board meetings which occur immediately before the release of the quarterly Inflation Report and the updating of the staff’s forecasts (namely those in April, July and October) have been ones where the Board has shown a preference to pause – even during this long tightening cycle.
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At the October meeting last year, there was a surprise slowing in the pace of tightening from 50bps to 25bps; in January this year there was no meeting; April saw the first pause in the cycle after consecutive hikes in February and March; and July saw a pause after consecutive hikes in May and June.</li></ul><p>The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to hold the cash rate unchanged and sound a hawkish tone.</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-policy-meeting-next-week-on-hold-expected-20230929/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">RBA policy meeting – on hold expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rising-australian-inflation-its-not-safe-to-conclude-that-the-rba-rate-cycle-has-peaked-20230927/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">Rising Australian inflation, "its not safe to conclude that the RBA rate cycle has peaked"</a></li></ul><p>Further ahead:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-private-survey-september-cpi-00-mm-prior-02-20231002/" target="_blank">(yet to come) the November RBA meeting is still live</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-fund-manager-says-theres-a-40-chance-of-an-rba-rate-hike-in-novemberdecember-20231002/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true">Australian fund manager says there's a 40% chance of an RBA rate hike in November/December</a></li></ul><p>The cash rate target is to remain at 4.1% today.</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.