Only one of Australia big four banks expects the RBA cash rate to remain on hold this week

<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting is on 4 July. We'll get the decision and the Statement from RBA Governor Lowe at 2.30 Sydney time, which is 0430 GMT and 0030 US Eastern time. </p><p>Earlier previews:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/anz-still-expect-a-rate-rise-from-the-rba-next-week-a-25bp-cash-rate-hike-20230628/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">ANZ still expect a rate rise from the RBA next week, a +25bp cash rate hike</a><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/anz-expects-25bps-rate-hike-from-rba-on-tues-and-scope-for-audnzd-rally-next-week-20230630/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">ANZ expects 25bps rate hike from RBA on Tues and scope for AUD/NZD rally next week</a></li></ul></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/after-australias-better-cpi-data-yesterday-nab-still-expect-a-july-rba-rate-hike-20230628/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">After Australia's better CPI data yesterday NAB still expect a July RBA rate hike</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/westpac-reaffirms-its-forecst-for-a-25bp-reserve-bank-of-australia-rate-hike-on-july-4-20230630/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Westpac reaffirms its forecst for a 25bp Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike on July 4</a></li></ul><p>FWIW I think the hawkish position of Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Bullock indicate a rate hike tomorrow:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-dep-gov-bullock-says-employment-and-economy-need-top-grow-below-trend-for-a-while-20230620/" target="_blank" rel="follow">RBA Dep Gov Bullock says employment and economy need to grow below trend for a while</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-dep-gov-bullock-says-higher-rates-are-the-only-tool-the-rba-has-to-curb-inflation-20230620/" target="_blank" rel="follow">RBA Dep Gov Bullock says higher rates are the only tool the RBA has to curb inflation</a></li></ul><p>Economists at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia are tipping an 'on hold' decision though. In brief from their preview:</p><ul><li>In what is likely to be another finely balanced decision, we expect the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.10% in July, pausing before one final rate hike in August.</li><li>The RBA has stated that the June meeting was finely balanced, with the rate hike driven by upside inflation risks.</li><li>The lower-than-expected monthly CPI print for May has, in our view, tilted the balance of risks to an on hold decision in July.</li><li>But the July RBA Board meeting remains ‘live’ given the RBA’stightening bias and heightened concerns over inflation risks</li><li>We attach a 60% probability of on hold decision at the July RBA Board meeting, with a 40% chance of a 25bphike.</li></ul><p>—</p><p>The current rate of inflation and cash rate in Australia, from the front page of the RBA website:</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.