Oil has fallen back from its gap higher at Monday's open – has the supply dynamic changed?

<p>Oil opened with a gap up in Sunday evening (US time) futures trade:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/oil-futures-open-higher-after-a-weekend-of-middle-east-escalation-20240128/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Oil futures open higher after a weekend of Middle East escalation</a></li></ul><p>Escalation in the Middle East centred on two recent items:</p><ul><li>Late last week a Trafigura-operated fuel tanker was hit by terrorist missiles.</li><li>Over the weekend three US servicemen were killed in an attack</li></ul><p>After the gap up oil has dropped back:</p><p>Curiously I could do a similar update on gold, it too gapped higher:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/gold-has-jumped-higher-alongside-oil-as-mid-east-turmoil-escalates-20240128/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Gold has jumped higher alongside oil as Mid-East turmoil escalates</a></li></ul><p>Its a little different in price action, it covered its gap and began heading higher:</p><p>Does oil follow higher?</p><p>Some commentary from ANZ suggest that answer should be 'yes', noting a change in the supply outlook:</p><ul><li>"Disruptions to supply have been limited, but that changed
on Friday after an oil tanker operating on behalf of Trafigura
was hit by a missile off the coast of Yemen," </li><li>"With oil tankers linked to the U.S. and UK now under threat
of attack, the market is likely to reprice the risk of
disruptions."</li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.