October 2023 Monthly

<div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3KAzcKuX-syzyOVmBoNhyIBcLgpL1yEj9cwCI8o_5YIhU0ehSRBJerMS4MqRjEehNnr0e5kbk8MqvKgOOKVmoR6TNov2V7eZvx6WdyaZRnGCCTyqIAXrDBRkMXZU0XaFbDxykXGi9JjA2HcKwuddNRY99pJsm-srtfdbiwOCDx1WXa3mFqK0Uhm5MK3Jr/s436/monthly%201.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="282" data-original-width="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3KAzcKuX-syzyOVmBoNhyIBcLgpL1yEj9cwCI8o_5YIhU0ehSRBJerMS4MqRjEehNnr0e5kbk8MqvKgOOKVmoR6TNov2V7eZvx6WdyaZRnGCCTyqIAXrDBRkMXZU0XaFbDxykXGi9JjA2HcKwuddNRY99pJsm-srtfdbiwOCDx1WXa3mFqK0Uhm5MK3Jr/s400/monthly%201.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div>There are four large
macro forces shape the investment and business climate here at the start of the
last quarter of the year. First, the US economic outperformance has been stark.
This has helped underpin US rates and bolsters the dollar. The divergence is
likely to narrow in coming months as US growth slows rather than stronger
growth prospects in other high-income countries. Second, Beijing has taken
numerous measures, which although stopping well shy of the fiscal bazooka (like
in 2008) many critics advocate, the cumulative effect boosts the chances that
the 5% growth objective is achieved. </div><div> Third, OPEC+, and especially Saudi Arabia, are committed to
keeping world oil supplies tight. This has driven the price of oil above $90 a
barrel. In the first instance, it will elevate headline measures of inflation
and measures of nominal retail sales. However, for most countries, it will act
as a headwind for growth. In last month's forecast update, the OECD noted that
Europe is more vulnerable than the US from surging oil prices, as it lifted its
US growth forecast (to 2.2% this year and 1.3% next from 1.6% and 1.0%,
respectively), while reducing its forecast for the eurozone to 0.6% and 1.1%
(from 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively). </div><div> Fourth, the post-Covid monetary tightening cycle is ending, though
there may still be scope for some G10 countries to raise rates in Q4 23 or even
Q1 24. Still, investors typically respond to what is perceived to the last hike
differently than the first move in the cycle. Speculation is shifting toward
the timing of the first cut. Several emerging market countries, especially
in South America have already begun an easing cycle, as has Poland. Over
the past 30 years, the Federal Reserve, for example, delivered the first rate cut,
on average, of about 10.5 months after the last hike. The range has been five
to 18 months. Currently, the derivatives market is anticipating something
around the average. That dovetails with around when the market expected the
European Central Bank to cut rates, which is in early Q3 24. </div><div>Japan is an outlier. It is the only country that still has a
negative policy rate (-0.10%). Also, the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet
continues to expand, while other major central banks are allowing the
previously bought assets to roll-off the balance sheets. The upper-band of the
10-year bond yield has been doubled twice over the past year to 1.00%. It
finished Q3 at it high a little above 0.75%. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda seemed
to have suggested rates could be hiked late this year, but then appeared to
soften the rhetoric after the recent policy meeting. Some observers think that
Yield Curve Control will be abandoned before the central bank exits from the
negative policy rate. Still, the swaps market seems to be pricing in a small
rate hike at the end of Q1 24. </div><div> Politics is never far from the surface, though perhaps the
widespread practice of import-substitution industrial policies make the
invisible hand more visible. The polls warns that the Labour government could
be replaced by a center-right government in New Zealand. Switzerland holds the
first part of its federal elections in October and the second part in December.
Poland's national election may have the most far-reaching implications. The Law
and Justice Party is seeking a mandate for its third consecutive government.
When Russia first invaded Ukraine, Poland absorbed nearly seven million
Ukrainian refugees. An estimated 1.5 mln remain in Poland, but the focus has
shifted to keeping Ukrainian grain out and this has strained the bilateral
relationship.</div><div> Moreover, and some link the upcoming election in late October to
Warsaw's stance toward Ukraine. The government said last month that it would
not send new weapons to Ukraine. This is somewhat bombastic, as Poland's
contribution was rarely about its weapons transfers and more about it being a
conduit for other countries to get their weapons into Ukraine.
Warsaw indicated this would continue. Still, between, the dispute over
Ukrainian agriculture goods (Poland is not the only EU country to maintain a
ban) and the push back in the US among (some) Republican against the
administration's proposal, from Moscow's (and maybe Beijing's) perspective, the
coalition may fray. At the same time, overcoming an earlier reluctance, the US
will send long-range army tactical missile systems. They will expand the Kyiv's
firing zone. The takeaway is that the war is likely to persist and could
broaden in the period ahead. By early next year, Ukrainian pilots would have
completed their training for the F-16 fighter jets the NATO members, including
the US, are providing. </div><div> The UK will likely hold a general election late next year, but
there are two byelections in October that portend insight into the mood of
voters. One is for a district what the Tories held, but previously by a Johnson
Tory not from the Sunak-wing. The question is whether the Tories, who are
trailing well behind Labour in the national polls, are still fighting. More
important for Labour's fortunes may be by election in Scotland. The election is
for seat a lawmaker whose constituency recalled him for violating Covid
lockdown rules. To solidify its rejuvenation, Labour needs to rebuild its
Scottish presence. Germany's Bavaria holds its election, and the CSU has a firm
grip, and it will most likely return with its junior partner, the Free-Voters
of Bavaria, a local center-right party. The center-left national government is
unpopular and in the previous Bavarian election, the SPD drew less than 10% of
the vote, coming in fifth place. It may slip further, while the right AfD could
see its fortunes increase (10.2% in 2018).</div><div> Perhaps the most notable developments suggestive of the important
changes coming to the global capital markets was JP Morgan's announcement that
as of next June, it will include India in its emerging market bond index. It is
among the benchmarks asset managers use. Other benchmark providers are likely
to follow suit, even if with a lag. JP Morgan's announcement will build
liquidity and could improve access, making it more tempting and attractive for
others. At first, Indian bonds will have a maximum of 10% weighting in the
index, and some asset managers will begin accumulating a position before next
June. JP Morgan's decision is seen boosting capital inflows by $25-$40 bln. One
of the implications is the as India is incorporated into the global capital
markets, the liquidity in the assets and currency improves.</div><div> India occupies a unique space on the geopolitical chessboard. As
in the non-aligned movement during the first cold war, India is seeking its own
course. It is a member of the Quad, the security-sharing effort (with the
US, Japan, and Australia), and it has agreed to give US navy access to port of
call and repair privileges. At the same time, it is a big buyer of Russian oil
and gas (and appears to have recycled it back to Europe) and
buys munitions from Russia. Initially after the sanctions on Russia, Moscow
accepted rupee but the limits of what it could do with India's
currency given the capital controls made it refuse. Recent reports there
was an agreement to pay in UAE dirham, which is pegged to the dollar. Reports
suggest India may be developing a financial instrument that could appeal to
Russian investors. India and China not only have a disputed border, but the
sheer scale and proximity, coupled with ambition, makes them “natural” rivals.
According to some accounts, Russia and China are blocking India's (and
Brazil's) bid to join the UN Security Council.</div><div> India holds national elections early next year. The ban on the
export of most types of rice appears to be inspired by politics more than
economics. Reports indicate there are more than sufficient rice stocks, but the
restrictions ensure lower domestic prices. India accounted for about 40% of
world's traded rice and as a result of its actions, the price of rice, the
staple of around half the world's population, has surged to 15-year highs.
India is also caught up in a dispute with Canada, which claims to have credible
evidence that Indian security killed a Sikh leader (and Canadian citizen) in
British Columbia a few months ago. New Delhi has stopped granting visas to
Canadians and have requested that Ottawa reduce its diplomatic presence in
India. </div><div>  The Bannockburn World Currency Index (BWCI), a GDP-weighted basket
of the currencies of the largest dozen economies (EMU is counted as a single
economy) has anticipated the greater role for India. Using World Bank GDP
figures, the Indian rupee's weighting rose to 4.3% (from 3.8%) to move ahead of
the UK into fifth place (behind the US, China, EMU, and Japan). Making
some conservative assumptions, India's economy could surpass Germany's in a
couple of years. </div><div> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh41_PTh7I4gkqkdi_Mq9pyiBK3TQdAHzTm7Kimn8hWdse9iamqLCl_N2lATIhedoZmk6iyf5WxInEIWz-KA6ydjFPmsWw0XjcqT7-TYNcJAlTYVcPePoJLOW4uh1LsDuAIVxl5rdIpBm5al-zryW0bvm84WwwJzbYKLvRMRC1Qltjrs84E8bQ3voeBeEiB/s1091/bwci%20.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1091" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh41_PTh7I4gkqkdi_Mq9pyiBK3TQdAHzTm7Kimn8hWdse9iamqLCl_N2lATIhedoZmk6iyf5WxInEIWz-KA6ydjFPmsWw0XjcqT7-TYNcJAlTYVcPePoJLOW4uh1LsDuAIVxl5rdIpBm5al-zryW0bvm84WwwJzbYKLvRMRC1Qltjrs84E8bQ3voeBeEiB/w400-h290/bwci%20.jpg" width="400" /></a>BWCI fell for the second consecutive month, bringing to almost the
multiyear low set last November. The weakness of the index reflects the fact
that component currencies fell against the dollar in September. Sterling and the Japanese yen were
the weakest components of the basket, losing about 3.8% and 2.6%, respectively.
The euro followed closely, falling by about 2.5%. </div><div> </div><div>Among the
emerging market members, the Indian rupee was the strongest, with a 0.3%. The
Chinese yuan was close second. Despite the numerous formal and informal efforts
by Chinese officials, the yuan fell by about 0.55%. The Mexican
peso and South Korean won were the weakest among the emerging market members of
the index, falling by 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively.</div><div> Even though the BWCI has approached last
year's lows, most of the components have not.  The Australian dollar and
Indian rupee have come the closest.  And sterling (3.9% weighting), the
Canadian dollar (2.7%), the Brazilian real (2.4%) and the Mexican peso (1.8%)
have risen against the US dollar this year.  Combined, they account for
almost 11% of the BWCI.  The Russian ruble has a small weighting (2.8%),
but it is off nearly 24% this year and the yen, with a 5.3% weight in the
index, is off more than 12% year to date.  The drag on the index of the
two are almost the same.  Still, BWCI may be near an important low if our
assessment of the gathering headwinds on the US is fair. </div><div>      U.S. Dollar: Through its
updated Summary of Economic Projections the Federal Reserve offered a
full-throated endorsement of a soft-landing for the US economy. Surely, the US
economy has proven more resilient than Fed and market economists expected,
helped by a significantly higher federal deficit and a robust labor market and
an increase in real wages. However, significant headwinds are accumulating, and
this warns of the risk of a dramatic slowdown in Q4. The weak link remains the
financial sector. Deposits are still leaving banks and credit conditions are
tightening. The Fed's balance sheet unwind continues (average $117 bln over the
past six months since the March bank stress flare up), which is extinguishing
reserves. Bank share prices are falling and are near three-month lows. The UAW
strike may continue to broaden. Initially, a shutdown could last a couple of
weeks and some reports from Washington see the October 13 pay day for US troops.
In addition to the disruption for the millions of households that depend on
federal government services, and the important work done by regulators, the
economic data due out that is supposed to inform the Fed's decisions will be
interrupted in a partial shutdown. The rule of thumb estimate is that a
government shutdown costs about 0.2 percentage points of GDP a week and most of
it is recouped when the government re-opens. Moody's, the last of the three
main rating agencies that still grants the US AAA status, notes that a
government closure would be negative credit implications. In addition, student
loan servicing will resume for the first time in three years, and this is seen
squeezing consumption, which already looks set to slow. Tightness in the labor
market is easing. Higher oil and gasoline prices are also a headwind for
consumers, even if the US is a net exporter of energy and businesses have
long-term contracts. The Fed funds futures strip implies three rate cuts next
year, while the FOMC's median forecast envisions two. The market has all but
given up ideas of a November hike (less than a 20% chance). The Dollar Index
rallied for eleven consecutive weeks into the end of Q3. This is the longest
advance since 2014, driven chiefly by the stark divergence. We look for the
divergence to moderate due to the slowing of the US economy rather than better
economic news from Europe and Japan and expect this to cap the greenback after
an incredible two-and-a-half month run.</div><div> Euro: The
euro's decline since the mid-July peak near $1.1275 extended to within a few
hundredths of a cent of the year's low set in January near $1.0485. While this
partly reflects the broad strength of the US dollar, the news stream from
Europe is poor. The economy remains weak, near stagnant, and there is no
stimulus to be found. The swaps market sees the September rate hike as the last
in the cycle and has the first cut fully discounted in Q3 24. Although the
central bank meets on October 26, the focus will shift to fiscal policy in the
coming weeks as the 2024 budgets need to be submitted to the EU. The Stability
and Growth Pact fiscal targets were suspended during Covid and extended since
Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They are intended to be restored in 2024, though
given the near recessionary conditions in many members, some flexibility may be
shown. Last year's natural gas shock has given way to an oil shock this year,
compounded by the euro's weakness. At last month's meeting, the ECB shaved this
year's growth projection to 0.7% from 0.9% and next year to 1.0% from 1.5%. It
tweaked its inflation forecast to 5.6% this year and 3.2% next from 5.4% and
3.0%, respectively. The euro has fallen for 11 consecutive weeks through the
end of September. It is the longest decline since 1996. It is extremely oversold,
and the catalyst for a recovery may not be good news from the eurozone but
negative news from the US. That said, the next important chart area is near
$1.04. A correction could carry the single currency back toward $1.0660-$1.0700
without necessarily improving the outlook. For that the euro may need to
resurface above $1.0770-$1.0800.</div><div> (As of September 29,
indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses) Spot: $1.0575 ($1.0780) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $1.0650 ($1.0840) One-month
forward: $1.0585 ($1.0800)   One-month
implied vol: 6.8% (6.8%)  </div><div> <o:p>  </o:p>Japanese Yen:  The market has been on "intervention watch" since
early September when the dollar surpassed JPY146, where officials had
intervened last year. The rhetoric and word cues deployed that have signaled
intervention in the past. However, what contributed to the success last
October's intervention (and the failure in September) was in timing the
operations to pick a top in US Treasury yields. However, with the increase in
supply, the resilience of the US economy, and higher oil prices, the US 10-year
yield rose more than 45 bp last month to the highest level in 16 years. The
implication is that when there is a reasonable chance that US yields have
peaked, the risk of intervention increases. Given the market positioning,
intervention could knock the dollar down by around five years. Although the
Bank of Japan meets at the end of October, the focus in the month ahead will
shift to fiscal policy. The government is drafting a supplemental budget, which
could be JPY15-20 trillion (~$100-$135 bln). In addition to extending subsidies
for energy, the government is talking about tax cuts to encourage wage
increases and investment in strategic areas, like semiconductors. Even though a
cabinet reshuffle in September failed to lift popular approval for government,
Prime Minister Kishida is believed to be considering a dissolution of the Diet
to hold elections either late this year or early next year, the tax cut
proposal may be a central plank in a gambit to shore up support. Contrary to
conventional wisdom, despite rising domestic market rates, Japanese investors
stepped up their buying of foreign bonds in the eight weeks since the bond
adjustment at the end of July. They purchased about JPY5 trillion of foreign
bonds compared with JPY700 bln in the previous eight weeks. Japanese investors
have bought a modest amount of foreign stocks over the period JPY440 bln.
Foreign investors have dumped Japanese bonds and stocks (~JPY8.7 trillion) in
the same period.</div><div> Spot: JPY149.35 (JPY146.20) Median
Bloomberg One-month forecast: JPY146.85 (JPY144.10) One-month
forward: JPY148.55 (JPY144.50) One-month
implied vol: 8.7% (9.0%) </div><div>    British Pound: Sterling
was the weakest of the G10 currencies, losing almost 3.7% against the US dollar
in September (~six cents) before stabilizing at the end of the month. That is
the largest decline since the sterling crisis last September and August that
saw the pound fall to record low near $1.0350. The softer than expected August
CPI (September 20) and the Bank of England's decision to stand pat at the MPC
meeting the following day, did sterling no favor. Though by that time, sterling
was already fraying support around $1.2400, and by the end of September, it was
trading at six-month lows near $1.2100. Initially, risk on the downside risk
extends toward $1.20, though the $1.2075 area corresponds to a technical
retracement target. Beyond that, the next target may be closer to
$1.1750. On the upside, sterling needs to resurface above $1.2350-$1.2400
to lift the technical tone. The BOE cut its forecast for Q3 growth to 0.1%
from 0.4% it projected in August. Also, the central bank announced that over
the next 12 months starting in October, it will reduce its balance sheet from
GBP100 bln to GBP658 bln. In the previous 12 months, it reduced its holdings by
GBP80 bln. The central bank meets next on November 2. The swaps market has
slightly less than a 50% chance of a hike discounted and around a 70% chance of
a hike before the end of the year, making the employment and inflation reports
on October 18-19 especially important.</div><div> Spot: $1.2200 ($1.2850) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast:
$1.2305 ($1.2620) One-month forward:  $1.2205 ($1.2590) One-month
implied vol: 7.6% (7.6%) </div><div>   Canadian Dollar: <o:p>The US dollar extended its rally
against the Canadian dollar that began in mid-July into September, reaching
almost CAD1.3700. While the broader dollar gains continued against the euro, yen,
sterling, and the Chinese yuan, its gains against the Canadian dollar were
halved (~CAD1.3380). </o:p>The 0.2% contraction in Q2 overstated the
weakness of the Canadian economy and a stronger performance appears to be
unfolding in Q3. This, coupled with disappointing CPI, have spurred a shift in
market expectations toward a Bank of Canada rate hike in Q4. However, a
disappointing July GDP report (flat) helped lift the greenback to CAD1.3565 at
the end of September saw the market reduce the chances of a hike in Q4. The
market may have to re-test the CAD1.3600-50 area. In the swaps market, the
implied odds of a hike at the October 25 meeting doubled in September to around
45% but fell back to about 30% in response to the July GDP report.  The
market priced in an almost 80% chance of a quarter-point boost in Q4 but pulled
back to around 60% at the end of the month. It was about a 20% chance at the
start of September. Ahead of this month's central bank meeting, StatsCan will
report September CPI figures on October 17, and the market will be particularly
sensitive to the underlying core rates, which rose more than expected in
August. </div><div> <o:p></o:p><o:p>Spot: CAD1.3575 </o:p>(CAD 1.3590) Median Bloomberg One-month
forecast: CAD1.3 515 (CAD1.3510) One-month forward:
CAD1.3580 (CAD1.3570) One-month implied vol: 5.8% (5.5%) </div><div> <o:p>  </o:p>Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar fell to a marginal new low for the year in
September. The low slightly above $0.6330. The next target is the
$0.6270-$0.6300 area. The futures market sees practically no chance of a hike
by the Reserve Bank of Australia at the October 3 meeting. The market is not
convinced the RBA is done, though, and is discounted about a 50% change of a
hike in Q4, and around an 80% probability of a hike in Q1 24. The US pays about
110 bp more that Australia to borrow for two years and this is historically a
large premium. When the Australian dollar was trading near $0.6900 in mid-July,
the Australia's 10-year yield as nearly 30 bp above the US Treasury yield. It
finished September at a 20 bp discount. The still uninspiring performance of
the Chinese economy, and weakness in many industrial metals and wheat prices
may also have weighed on sentiment. Speculators in the IMM futures have amassed
a record large, short Australian dollar position. A close above $0.6500, which
the Aussie has not done since August 10, would suggest a bottom of some
importance was likely recorded.</div><div> <o:p>Spot: $0.6435 </o:p>($0.6455) Median Bloomberg
One-month forecast: $0.6490 ($0.6495) One-month
forward $0.6445 ($0.6465)    One-month
implied vol 9.8% (10.2%) </div><div> <o:p>  </o:p>Mexican Peso:  The peso was unable to fully recover from the sell-off that
followed the official decision in late August to wind down the currency hedging
facility. The market’s reaction seemed outsized compared with immediate volume
it entails (~$7.5 bln) and may have been related to market positioning.
Speculators in the IMM futures appear to have reduced their net long peso
position for the third consecutive month in September, off by nearly a third
over the run. The dollar briefly traded
below MXN17.00 before the late September FOMC meeting. But the
higher-for-longer message and risk-off mood helped lift greenback to four-month
highs a little below MXN17.82. It approached the 200-day moving average,
which it has not traded above in a year (~MXN17.85). While the price action needs
to be respected, the forces that have underpinned the peso still are intact.
The carry trade rate differential) remains attractive. Here, we note that Chile
and Brazil have delivered two cuts in their new easing cycle and more rate
reductions are expected in Q4. As recently, as June, Chile and Mexico overnight
rates were at 11.25%. Now, Chile's overnight rate is at 9.50% and Mexico's
remains at 11.25%. The market has pushed its rate cut expectations for Banxico
well into next year. Meanwhile, the strong worker remittances more than covers
Mexico's trade imbalance, while the near-shoring and friend-shoring memes,
underscored by the USMCA agreement, draw foreign direct investment.</div><div> <o:p></o:p>Spot: MXN17.42 (MXN17.09) Median Bloomberg One-Month forecast
MXN17.39 (MXN17.1750) One-month forward
MXN17.52 (MXN17.18) One-month implied vol
12.2% (11.4%)</div><div>   Chinese Yuan: Chinese officials
seemed to get more serious about supporting the economy in recent weeks. While
stopping short of large-scale fiscal steps, the numerous measures, and the
exercise of soft power to encourage desired behavior seems to have begun
yielding constructive results. Similarly, officials have managed to limit the
yuan's descent to a little more than 0.5% in September, less than most other
currencies. A squeeze in liquidity in the offshore market was arranged and
reserve requirements for currency deposits were adjusted. Orders to buy more
than $25 mln came under closer official scrutiny. Banks were discouraged from
selling the yuan in proprietary trading. The central bank's daily fix has
consistently in favor of the yuan. At the same time, interest rates and bank
reserves were cut, extending the policy divergence with the US. Judging from
some portfolio flow reports, it does not appear that foreign investors have
been persuaded to return to Chinese stocks or bonds. There is scope for
additional adjustment of China's monetary policy before the end of the year,
even if not in October. The Golden Week holidays will shut mainland markets the
first week in October. Barring a new setback, the groundwork for a Biden-Xi
meeting in November at the APEC gathering, appears to be falling into place.</div><div> <u1:p><o:p><o:p><u1:p><o:p><o:p>Spot:
CNY7.2980 </o:p></o:p></u1:p></o:p></o:p></u1:p>(CNY7.2665) Median
Bloomberg One-month forecast CNY7.2800 (CNY7.2225) One-month
forward CNY7.1960 (CNY7.2075) One-month implied vol 5.2% (6.4%) </div><div> </div><div> <o:p><a href="http://www.marctomarket.com/p/disclaimer_28.html" target="_blank">Disclaimer</a></o:p></div><div><o:p> </o:p></div><div><o:p> </o:p></div><o:p></o:p>

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