NQ100_m: US CPI may spark 4000-point move
<p><strong>By <a href="http://investmacro.com/contributors/contributor-profile-forextime/">ForexTime</a> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Tech-heavy index hovers around 15,530 ahead of pivotal US data</li>
<li>Stock bulls are hoping for new 2023 high on slowing inflation</li>
<li>Key moving averages may offer support on higher-than-expected CPI</li>
</ul>
<h3><strong>The NQ100_m is holding around 15,500 awaiting the release of the latest US inflation data.</strong></h3>
<p>This tech-heavy index has “stalled” at the significant price level of 15530, after a 4000-point move in the index on Friday, November 10th.</p>
<blockquote>
<h3><strong><em>The 15530 level has served as a key resistance in the past with recent tests in late August and mid-September failing to breach this level.</em></strong></h3>
</blockquote>
<p><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class=" lazyloaded" src="https://www.forextime.com/s3-static/users/user16/NQ100_mDailynew%20(2).png" alt="" width="1000" height="800" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="761838f5-1a4c-409a-940d-07884400e059" data-src="/s3-static/users/user16/NQ100_mDailynew%20(2).png" /></p>
<blockquote>
<h3><strong><em>Today’s Consumer Price Inflation data (C.P.I) may inject some volatility into the markets</em></strong></h3>
</blockquote>
<p><em>NOTE: CPI measures changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers.</em></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Today’s October CPI data out of the US is expected to show:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Headline CPI </strong>month-on-month (October 2023 vs. September 2023): <strong>0.1%</strong><br />
<em>(lower than September’s 0.4% month-on-month CPI) </em></li>
<li><strong>Headline CPI </strong>year-on-year (October 2023 vs. October 2022): <strong>3.3%</strong><br />
<em>(lower than September’s 3.7% month-on-month CPI) </em></li>
<li><strong>Core CPI </strong>month-on-month<strong>: 0.3%</strong><br />
<em>(matching September’s 0.3% month-on-month core CPI)</em></li>
<li><strong>Core CPI </strong>year-on-year<strong>: 4.1%</strong><br />
<em>(matching September’s 4.1% year-on-year core CPI)</em></li>
</ul>
<p> </p>
<blockquote>
<h3><strong><em>If US inflation surprises to the upside, this raises the probability of more Fed rate hikes.</em></strong></h3>
</blockquote>
<p>With the tech index averse to US rate hikes, this could trigger a decline in NQ100_m to test support around:</p>
<blockquote>
<ul>
<li><strong>15300: </strong>a psychologically-important round number</li>
<li><strong>15135.4: </strong>former resistance of a downward sloping channel, which could act as support; the <strong>100-day simple moving average</strong> (SMA) also resides close by</li>
<li><strong>50-day simple moving average</strong></li>
</ul>
<h3></h3>
<h3><em>If November’s CPI data comes out <strong>lower-than expected</strong>, this should encourage <strong>NQ100_m bulls to charge on.</strong></em></h3>
</blockquote>
<p>On the way upwards, they will have to contend with the following potential resistance levels as they aim for new highs:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>15768.8:</strong> the 161.8 golden fibonacci level<br />
<em>(The Fibonacci level is drawn from August 14, 2022, high to October 9 2022 low on the weekly time frame)</em></li>
<li><strong>15947.7:</strong> the highest year-to-day price reached on August 19th.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<blockquote></blockquote>
<p>In addition, the <strong>Average Directional Movement Indicato</strong>r, (an indicator that shows trend strength) is <strong>above the 20-point mid-level</strong>, suggesting that the <strong>current rally in the NQ100_m is still strong.</strong></p>
<p>This is further confirmed with the<strong> Relative Strength Index (RSI)</strong> staying <strong>above its mid-point level at 50.</strong></p>
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