Moody's on recession risk and Federal Reserve rate cuts next year

<p>Moody's offered up views on the Federal Reserve and recession risk on Wednesday in a report and also in a TV interview with Mark Zandi, chief economist at the rating agency. </p><p>In summary:</p><ul><li>the CPI data confirms that the rate hikes are over</li><li> I don't think the the bar is high for them to actually cut rates</li><li>they need to be absolutely sure that inflation is going to get back to their target before they do that</li><li>rate cuts probably not until mid-next year, after that I think they cut rate slowly</li><li> the economy is going to be able to avoid recession </li><li>job growth is slowing </li><li>wage growth is moderating</li><li>"We put the odds of a recession beginning in 2024 at 25%. … Behind the still-elevated recession probabilities are the considerable number of downside risks evident in our U.S. risk matrix." </li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.