Markets Keep A Close Watch On Middle East Tension

<p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/markets-keep-a-close-watch-on-middle-east-tension"><picture class="lozad" data-iesrc="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/Markets_Keep_A_Close_Watch_on_Middle_East_Tension.jpg" data- data- data-alt="eur usd daily chart with the blog title written on it" data-height="376" data-width="800"><source type="image/webp" media="(min-width: 640px)" srcset="https://dynamic-images.admiralmarkets.com/720x,webp/fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/Markets_Keep_A_Close_Watch_on_Middle_East_Tension.jpg"></source><source type="image/webp" media="(max-width: 639px)" srcset="https://dynamic-images.admiralmarkets.com/375x,webp/fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/Markets_Keep_A_Close_Watch_on_Middle_East_Tension.jpg"></source></picture></a></p><p>Oil prices eased on Tuesday morning as market analysts and investors try to assess the potential impact of the conflict in the Middle East on energy supply. Stock markets in Asia rose shaking off pressures recorded yesterday.</p><p>On Monday, the upheaval in the Middle East boosted oil prices in global markets with the popular trading commodity recovering lost ground during the previous week. Brent crude oil traded 4% higher, up to $89 per barrel as investors scrambled to add more of the so-called “safe haven” assets to their portfolios.</p><p>Some market analysts already suggest that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could re-evaluate any potential rate hike considerations to avoid a recession or even bring forward rate cuts during 2024. According to the <a rel="nofollow noopener" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" target="_blank">CME FedWatch Tool</a>, the likelihood of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in its November board meeting has risen to 89%.</p><div>
<h2>Table of Contents</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog#mcetoc_1hccdb7vn6">Germany CPI Inflation Report</a></li>
<li><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog#mcetoc_1hccdb7vn7">OPEC Raises Long-Term Oil Production Forecast</a></li>
<li><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog#mcetoc_1hccdb7vn8">ECB VP De Guindos Urges For Caution</a></li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Germany CPI Inflation Report</h2><p>On Wednesday morning, <a rel="nofollow noopener" href="https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Prices/Consumer-Price-Index/_node.html" target="_blank">Destatis will publish the September CPI inflation report.</a> Economists expect headline inflation to have remained unchanged at 4.5% and 0.3% on an annualised and monthly basis respectively. The last time a lower inflation rate was registered was in February 2022, just before the start of the war in Ukraine.</p><p>News coming from the German market however are not particularly positive. ING’s analysts noted that the country’s most popular business indicator, the Ifo index, dropped for the fifth month in a row, recording the lowest reading since 2018.</p><p>Germany’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 39.1 in August, its second lowest reading since May 2020, while a factory orders drop by more than 4% surpassed economists’ expectations.</p><h2>OPEC Raises Long-Term Oil Production Forecast</h2><p>In its 2023 World Oil Outlook, <a rel="nofollow noopener" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/09/oil-opec-raises-global-crude-demand-outlook-through-to-2045.html" target="_blank">OPEC said it expected global demand to reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045</a>, which would be 6 million more barrels than it predicted this time last year. OPEC’s report said that the investment funds to cover the production uptick could get close to $14 trillion.</p><p>OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais noted: “Recent developments have led the OPEC team to reassess just what each energy can deliver, with a focus on pragmatic and realistic options and solutions. Calls to stop investments in new oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos. History is replete with numerous examples of turmoil that should serve as a warning for what occurs when policymakers fail to acknowledge energy’s interwoven complexities.”</p><h2>ECB VP De Guindos Urges For Caution</h2><p>The ECB’s Vice President Luis De Guindos said on Monday that market participants should be cautious due to rising consumer prices. De Guindos noted that the macroeconomic environment is subject to "enormous uncertainty.”</p><p>However, De Guindos expressed his belief that inflation is on a downward trajectory despite elevated oil prices, the euro’s depreciation against the US dollar and rising labour costs.</p><p><em>Does trading on macroeconomic news interest you? Learn how this approach works with our free webinars. Meet and interact with experienced traders. Watch and learn from live trading sessions.</em></p><p></p><div><div><span>Free trading webinars</span><p>Tune into live webinars hosted by our trading experts</p><a target="_blank" href="https://admiralmarkets.com/education/webinars">REGISTER FOR FREE</a></div><div><a target="_blank" href="https://admiralmarkets.com/education/webinars"><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/markets-keep-a-close-watch-on-middle-east-tension"><picture class="lozad" data-iesrc="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/img/uploads/6451109f81eed1683034271.png" data- data- data-alt="Free trading webinars" data-height="" data-width=""><source type="image/webp" media="(min-width: 640px)" srcset="https://dynamic-images.admiralmarkets.com/720x,webp/fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/img/uploads/6451109f81eed1683034271.png"></source><source type="image/webp" media="(max-width: 639px)" srcset="https://dynamic-images.admiralmarkets.com/375x,webp/fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/img/uploads/6451109f81eed1683034271.png"></source></picture></a></a></div></div><p><b>This material does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Please note that such trading analysis is not a reliable indicator for any current or future performance, as circumstances may change over time. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek advice from independent financial advisors to ensure you understand the <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">risks</a>.</b></p>