JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 29-11-2023
<h2>Dovish Tone Bolsters Investor Confidence</h2>
<p>The dollar continued its downfall following softer comments from the Fed’s more hawkish members on Tuesday, as the dovish tone weighed on the narrative of peak rates and bolstered investor confidence. The 10-year declined to 4.33%, sending gold closer to record highs.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" class="alignnone wp-image-27363 size-full" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-15.png" alt="" width="1910" height="913" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-15.png 1910w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-15-300×143.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-15-1024×489.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-15-768×367.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-15-1536×734.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1910px) 100vw, 1910px" /></p>
<p><strong>Chart: EURUSD</strong></p>
<h2>Key Factors for Today</h2>
<ul>
<li>Shift Away From Hawkish Tone Fuels Confidence, Gold Near Record</li>
<li>Euro Rides High on Nagel’s Hawkish Remarks Amidst A Weaker Dollar</li>
<li>WTI Surges 2% Despite API Draw As Report Showed Substantial Miss</li>
<li>Pound Gains Momentum Following Haskel’s Comments, Softer USD</li>
<li>New Zealand’s Kiwi Takes Flight on RBNZ’s Surprising Hawkish Stand</li>
</ul>
<h2>Hawkish Speakers Shift Tone, Gold 1.30% Closer to Record</h2>
<p>Fed officials Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, who previously backed higher interest rates, signalled at least a rate pause, boosting investor confidence. The former suggested that if inflation continues its fall, the Fed could even consider rate cuts, while the latter failed to portray her typical hawkish stance. However, Consumer Confidence was seen rising to 102 from 101 expected, with upcoming data all more critical. On Tuesday, the dollar’s demise sent gold soaring 1.30% higher to $2040 an ounce, leaving behind support at $2030. Wednesday has also started on positive footing as the yellow metal reached a May high above $2050.</p>
<h2>Euro Catches Bid to 1.10 After Nagel’s Hawkish Comments</h2>
<p>The Euro market has evidenced a response to the comments made by Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel in the aftermath of ECB Christine Lagarde’s remarks against rate cuts. The official said on Tuesday that the ECB might hike again if inflation persisted. Meanwhile, bank lending dropped on Tuesday, marking the first fall in eight years. However, a softer dollar boosted EURUSD to 1.10, where it faces multiple resistances to 1.1045. 1.0965 is expected support.</p>
<h2>Oil Experiences 2% Upswing Despite API Draw Miss</h2>
<p>The oil market spiked 2% on Tuesday as inventories dipped by 817K barrels, albeit lower than the 2M barrels expected. The market’s reaction appeared more influenced by Monday’s SPR report showing a rise of 700K barrels and rumours that the delayed OPEC+ meeting will be postponed again. WTI’s rise to $76.50 could continue while the dollar remains weak, eying $78.50 next unless bulls lose the $75 mark per barrel.</p>
<h2>Haskel’s Remarks Help the Pound Mark 4-Day Streak</h2>
<p>BOE’s Jonathan Haskel said yesterday that the labour market is too hot for rate cuts in an environment of high inflation, adding to the higher-for-longer narrative. It follows Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden’s softer comments on BOE’s restrictive stance. The British pound reclaimed $1.27 to complete a 4-day winning streak on Tuesday and remains bid on Wednesday due to a broadly weaker greenback. The GBPUSD pair has support at $1.2625.</p>
<h2>New Zealand Dollar Soars as RBNZ Adopts Hawkish Tone</h2>
<p>The New Zealand dollar has surged following the RBNZ’s latest meeting. As expected, the central bank maintained interest rates at 5.5% but surprisingly hinted at more rate hikes, boosting the Kiwi over 1% higher to 0.62.</p>
<h2>On The Docket</h2>
<ul>
<li>ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting</li>
<li>BOE Consumer Credit</li>
<li>EA Economic Sentiment</li>
<li>DE Inflation Rate</li>
<li>US GDP Growth Rate QoQ</li>
<li>EIA Crude Oil Stock Change</li>
<li>Fed Mester Speech</li>
</ul>
<h2>FX 1-Day Relative Performance (USD)</h2>
<ul>
<li>Aussie 0.11% down while Kiwi at 0.83% up</li>
<li>Euro 0.06% higher, Pound 0.18% up</li>
<li>Loonie up 0.20%, Frank at +0.18%</li>
<li>Japanese yen 0.24% higher too</li>
<li>Gold 0.26% higher, Silver lags at 0.15%</li>
<li>Crude 0.16% up, Brent only mere 0.04%</li>
<li>Natural gas 1.62% into the red zone</li>
</ul>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/jaspers-market-squawk-29-11-2023-27362/">JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 29-11-2023</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>
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