JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 28-06-2023

<h2>US Economic Data Reverse Risk Appetite</h2>
<p>The dollar retreated on Tuesday on the back of resilient economic data supporting risk appetite. Euro rose, assisted by ECB hawks.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone wp-image-23914 size-full" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Untitled-design-36.png" alt="" width="1922" height="916" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Untitled-design-36.png 1922w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Untitled-design-36-300×143.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Untitled-design-36-1024×488.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Untitled-design-36-768×366.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Untitled-design-36-1536×732.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1922px) 100vw, 1922px" /><em><strong>Chart: EURUSD</strong></em></p>
<h2>Key Factors for Today</h2>
<ul>
<li>Dollar retreats as resilient economic data supports risk appetite, boosting the euro</li>
<li>Gold falls after upbeat US data weakens safe-haven appeal, exposing $1890/oz</li>
<li>Euro strengthens as ECB President’s hawkish remarks lift sentiment, targeting $1.10 next</li>
<li>Yen reaches fresh multi-month low against the dollar, raising concerns of possible intervention</li>
<li>Australian inflation slows, causing Aussie to decline by 1% before finding support</li>
<li>WTI slides over 2% on falling inventories as economic prospects weigh on price</li>
</ul>
<h2>Gold Lower After Upbeat US Data</h2>
<p>Dollar and gold fell on Tuesday as US economic data indicated resilience, taking away from safe-haven flows following upbeat home and consumer data. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed home prices experiencing the first year-over-year decline since April 2012, implying a cooling demand effect. At the same time, the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence numbers came in higher than forecast for June, a sign that individuals are feeling good about the state of the economy. The commodity extended losses to $1910/oz, exposing $1890/oz on its way down with resistance at $1925/oz.</p>
<h2>EUR/USD Bounces at $1.09 After Hawksih Lagarde</h2>
<p>Euro got a boost following ECB President Christine Lagarde’s hawkish remarks. Lagarde said that inflation in the eurozone was likely to persist for some time, implying that the ECB may not announce the end of peak rates any time soon. Other ECB policymakers also believed inflation was not easing enough to warrant a pause, sending the euro from a low of $1.09 to a high of $1.09 against the dollar. Bulls eye $1.10 next, with yesterday’s support on the radar.</p>
<h2>Yen to ¥144.00 Against Dollar, Reaching Fresh Multi-Month Level</h2>
<p>The BOJ disclosed its semiannual currency and monetary control report, saying that as of the end of March, its total assets decreased by 0.2%. The Japanese yen was the exception against the dollar, as it fell to a November 10 low, letting USD/JPY rise to ¥144.00 on increasing concerns about possible BOJ intervention. Japan’s Finance Minister warned of a response if the yen continued to depreciate. ¥143.50 remains short-term support, while bulls may open up ¥145.00.</p>
<h2>Australia May Inflation Lowest Since Early 2022</h2>
<p>Headline May CPI for Australia came in at 5.6%, well below the 6.1% expected in the aftermath of the RBA raising rates. Annual trimmed mean inflation, the measure most preferred by policymakers, fell to 6.1% from 6.7% prior. New dwellings saw the slowest increase in price since the end of 2021. Aussie reached a 1% loss early Wednesday, finding regional support at $0.6618, with the $0.66 handle coming up next. Conversely, $0.6687 is intraday resistance bulls must recapture for some respite.</p>
<h2>WTI Slids More Than 2% After API Sees Inventories Falling</h2>
<p>The API survey showed a drawdown of 2.4M bbl of crude inventories compared to the 1.5M bbl expected, but Cushing inventories rose 1.5M compared to 0.1M prior. The DOE disclosed it sold another 1.4M bbl from the SPR last week, and production remained at the year low of 12.2M bbl/day. However, prospects for economic growth seem to weigh more on crude prices, with WTI price down 2.15% to $68/bbl, increasing chances of an extension toward $67/bbl. Conversely, $69/bbl is resistance.</p>
<h2>On The Docket</h2>
<ul>
<li>ECB Guindos Speech</li>
<li>Itlay Inflation</li>
<li>BOE Pill Speech</li>
<li>ECB President Lagarde’s Speech</li>
<li>Fed Chair Powell’s Speech</li>
<li>EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change</li>
<li>US Bank Stress Test</li>
<li>ECB Forum on Central Banking</li>
</ul>
<h2>FX 1-Day Relative Performance (USD)</h2>
<ul>
<li>Aussie and Kiwi 0.69% and 0.84% down</li>
<li>Euro 0.07% down, British pound by -0.16%</li>
<li>Yen 0.06% up, while Franc 0.08% down</li>
<li>Canadian dollar 0.16% lower</li>
<li>Gold and silver both 0.07% higher</li>
<li>WTI and Brent up by 0.68% and 0.56%</li>
<li>Natural gas is 1.36% higher</li>
</ul>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/jaspers-market-squawk-28-06-2023-23910/">JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 28-06-2023</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>