JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 24-11-2023

<h2>Cable to September High During Light Session</h2>
<p>With Wall Street closed for Thanksgiving, price action remained in narrow ranges. European PMIs were in focus after France and the UK surprised to the down and upside, respectively. A slightly weaker dollar let the pound spike to a September high in the aftermath of services’ expansion.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone wp-image-27226 size-full" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-12.png" alt="" width="1916" height="913" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-12.png 1916w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-12-300×143.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-12-1024×488.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-12-768×366.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-12-1536×732.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1916px) 100vw, 1916px" /></p>
<p><strong>Chart: EURUSD</strong></p>
<h2>Key Factors for Today</h2>
<ul>
<li>Contracting Eurozone PMIs Raise Recession Concerns, Inflation Worries Persist</li>
<li>Surprising UK Services Expansion, Citi Extends Rate Cut Expectations</li>
<li>Rising Inflation Fuels Speculation on BOJ Pivot, Factory Activity Declines</li>
<li>WTI Takes a Breather Despite Positive Moves by Oil Majors</li>
<li>TCMB Takes Drastic Measures with 40% Interest Rates to Tackle Inflation</li>
</ul>
<h2>Contracting Eurozone PMIs Raise Recession Concerns</h2>
<p>Services and Manufacturing activity in France experienced another drop in November, boosting concerns about a potential recession. All Eurozone PMIs remained deep into contraction despite German and Euro Area figures coming in slightly better. The minutes revealed that policymakers didn’t seem confident about inflation falling to take hikes off the table either. Meanwhile, Germany’s Bundesbank Vice President Claudia Buch has warned about rising rate expenditures, weak demand for new loans and unrealised losses, indicating potential challenges ahead. The Eurodollar managed to close a tad positively on the back of a slightly weaker dollar, seen in a battleground, to maintain the $1.09 support.</p>
<h2>UK Services Expand, Citi Stretches BOE Cut Expectations</h2>
<p>Surprisingly, the UK’s PMIs came in better than expected, with Services back to expansion at 50.5, from 49.5 expected. Cable rose to a September high of $1.2570 on Thursday but retreated to form a double top, eying 1.25 next. Meanwhile, Citi has stretched out its expectations for a rate cut by the BOE to August of 2024 from May, citing national insurance and personal tax cuts announced in the UK’s budget. Meanwhile, Barclays is reportedly working on a £1.25 billion cost plan, which could lead to cutting up to 2,000 jobs.</p>
<h2>Rising Inflation Stoking Up Bets on a BOJ Pivot</h2>
<p>Headline Japanese inflation rose to 3.3% from 3% and core to 2.9% from 2.8%, however, they missed expectations. Still, the figures seem to be stoking bets on a BOJ pivot. Contrasting the inflation trends, Japan’s factory activity declined for the sixth month in a row due to weak demand. The USDJPY appears more bearish than mixed following the two releases, opening the door to 148.36. On the flip side, bulls are facing the 150 round resistance.</p>
<h2>WTI on The Backfoot Despite Majors Shining</h2>
<p>Despite oil majors seeing a boost, crude oil experienced a slight retreat, indicating slow price action during Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, Chinese refiners reduced Venezuelan oil input due to a seasonal drop in asphalt demand and held back purchasing its oil overall, citing wild discounts on cargos since the US sanction relief. WTI left an inside bar printed on the charts, pending further directional clarity from $75 or $77.70 a barrel.</p>
<h2>TCMB Ramps Up Interest Rates to 40%</h2>
<p>Turkey’s Central Bank has inflated its interest rates to a staggering 40% to tackle – well – inflation. The bank expects a moderation in rate hiking by December and hopes to achieve single-digit inflation within this decade. The Turkish Lira continued decelerating against the dollar, bringing the USDTRY pair closer to 29.</p>
<h2>On The Docket</h2>
<ul>
<li>German GDP Growth rate</li>
<li>Ifo Business Climate</li>
<li>ECB Lagarde Speech</li>
<li>CA Retail Sales</li>
<li>S&amp;P Global PMIs</li>
</ul>
<h2>FX 1-Day Relative Performance (USD)</h2>
<ul>
<li>Aussie and Kiwi up by 0.13% each</li>
<li>Euro 0.04% up, Pound at positive 0.06%</li>
<li>Loonie 0.05% in the red, Frank unchanged</li>
<li>Japanese yen 0.17% in the green zone</li>
<li>Gold 0.04% up, Silver at positive 0.37%</li>
<li>Crude 0.95% in the red, Brent down by 0.15%</li>
<li>Natural gas 0.69% higher up</li>
</ul>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/jaspers-market-squawk-24-11-2023-27222/">JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 24-11-2023</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>