JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 21-11-2023

<h2>Falling Yields Sent Nasdaq Soaring</h2>
<p>Optimism about peak rates and depleting recession fears has led investors to seek riskier bets in AI and emerging markets Monday, with Nasdaq hitting fresh highs for the year on the back of a weakening dollar. The 10-year fell to 4.393% following a relatively solid 20-year bond auction.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-27187" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-9.png" alt="" width="1911" height="914" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-9.png 1911w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-9-300×143.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-9-1024×490.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-9-768×367.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Template-Daily-9-1536×735.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1911px) 100vw, 1911px" /></p>
<p><strong>Chart: Nasdaq</strong></p>
<h2>Key Factors for Today</h2>
<ul>
<li>Nasdaq Soars to New 2023 Heights Amidst Weakening Dollar and Falling Yields</li>
<li>Dollar Dips, Microsoft and Nvidia Stocks Hit Record Highs Amidst AI Boom</li>
<li>BOE Bailey Signals Rate Hikes, Dismissing Optimism about Rate Cuts</li>
<li>ECB’s Villeroy Firm on No Near-term Cuts, Debate Around Germany’s Debt Brake Suspension Hits Up</li>
<li>WTI Continues Rally on Rumours of Extended OPEC+ Cuts, Bloomberg Expects Same</li>
<li>RBA Shows Hawkish Leanings Amid Inflation and Employment Concerns</li>
</ul>
<h2>USD on the Backfoot Towards Fresh 2023 Lows</h2>
<p>A New York Fed survey showed that the appetite for new credit in the US has taken a dip, suggesting a shift in consumer behaviour and market dynamics. However, the AI craze seems to be back on for now, with Microsoft and Nvidia hitting record highs. The US dollar continued to stumble lower on Monday on higher Treasury bonds, with the spotlight turning towards the Fed’s minutes later today. 103 is the next round support for the DXY and a new low for the year, with resistance at 103.80.</p>
<h2>Bailey Warns Bank May Have to Hike Again</h2>
<p>BOE Governor Andrew Bailey warned of potential hikes from food and energy costs due to inflation risks, dismissing recent optimism about rate cuts. He emphasised the need for a restrictive policy while cautioning against premature cuts amid high service inflation and wage growth. The GBP/USD may be influenced by these warnings, reflecting concerns about inflation and economic challenges in the UK. The Pound spiked to a September high at 1.2520, leaving behind support at 1.2466 and exposing 1.2622 next up.</p>
<h2>Villeroy Persists on No Cuts in the Near Future</h2>
<p>ECB’s Francois Villeroy has made it clear that there won’t be any rate hikes in the near future in Europe, barring unforeseen circumstances. Meanwhile, Germany was grappling with internal debates over suspending its “debt brake” rule, stirring up discussions on fiscal responsibility and economic stability. The European currency rose for the second consecutive day, and the focus now turns to 1.10 after a while unless bulls lose 1.09.</p>
<h2>WTI Extend Gains on OPEC+ Cut Speculation</h2>
<p>The oil market has continued to show resilience despite global economic slowdowns, with rumours of an OPEC+ cut leading another green session in the lead-up to the next OPEC+ meeting on November 26. Goldman Sachs revealed on Monday that deeper cuts wouldn’t be a surprise, with WTI nearing the $80 barrier again. On the downside, $75.70 seems to be a short-term support likely to offer at least an initial rejection.</p>
<h2>RBA Minutes Reveal Slightly Hawkish Bias</h2>
<p>The RBA was concerned that monetary tightening delays could complicate the path to target inflation but emphasised that future hikes will depend on upcoming inflation and employment data. The bank also said that there could be surprises that may warrant action. While some economists expect the end of hikes, others see one more in the books, with the Aussie up some 0.65% Monday to 0.6557. Next resistance can be seen at 0.66, whereas support waits by 0.6522.</p>
<h2>On The Docket</h2>
<ul>
<li>EU New Car Registrations</li>
<li>CA Inflation</li>
<li>CA New Housing Price Index</li>
<li>Chicago Fed National Activity Index</li>
<li>US Existing Home Sales</li>
<li>ECB President Lagarde Speech</li>
<li>FOMC Minutes</li>
<li>API Crude Oil Stock Change</li>
</ul>
<h2>FX 1-Day Relative Performance (USD)</h2>
<ul>
<li>Aussie 0.09% up, Kiwi at a positive 0.30%</li>
<li>Euro 0.13% higher, Pound seen at +0.17%</li>
<li>Loonie 0.02% down, Frank 0.16% higher</li>
<li>Japanese yen up by a significant 0.30%</li>
<li>Gold and silver higher, by 0.64% and 0.58%</li>
<li>Crude and Brent both 0.68% lower down</li>
<li>Natural gas 0.56% in the green zone</li>
</ul>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/jaspers-market-squawk-21-11-2023-27183/">JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 21-11-2023</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>