JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 19-07-2023
<h2>Markets Advance Despite Mixed Data</h2>
<p>Equities in the US and Europe finished the day in the green, supported by a growing risk appetite among limited data releases. The dollar was flat, while gold and crude rose.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone wp-image-24324 size-full" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Untitled-design-55.png" alt="" width="1914" height="914" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Untitled-design-55.png 1914w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Untitled-design-55-300×143.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Untitled-design-55-1024×489.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Untitled-design-55-768×367.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Untitled-design-55-1536×733.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1914px) 100vw, 1914px" /><em><strong>Chart: XAUUSD</strong></em></p>
<h2>Key Factors For Today</h2>
<ul>
<li>Markets Rally as Risk Appetite Grows Amid Limited Data</li>
<li>Gold Surges 1.25% on After US Retail Sales</li>
<li>WTI Crude Jumps 2.25% as API Reports Inventory Drawdown</li>
<li>BOJ Doubles Down on Easing, Yen Weaker</li>
<li>Canadian CPI at 26-Month Low, USD/CAD Volatile</li>
<li>Kiwi Swings After Higher Inflation Print in New Zealand</li>
</ul>
<h2>Gold Soars 1.25% After US Retail Sales</h2>
<p>Monthly June retail sales in the US grew 0.2%, slightly below the 0.3% forecast, while core aligned with expectations at 0.2%. With the retail sales control group exceeding expectations, estimates for Q2 GDP are expected to have been raised, reducing chances of a recession. Gains in US equities broadened slightly following the data release, with gold rising 1.25% to $1978/oz, closer to the $2k handle. Support is expected at $1965/oz.</p>
<h2>API Drawdown Assists WTI 2.25% Higher</h2>
<p>The API reported a slight drawdown in inventories last week of -0.8M bbl compared to the 2.3M bbl build that was expected. The DOE didn’t sell any crude from the SPR last week, the first time in almost four months. WTI rose 2.25% to $75.75/bbl, distancing itself from the support at $74/bbl and exposing the next resistance at $77.34/bbl.</p>
<h2>BOJ Doubles Down on Easing, Yen Impacted</h2>
<p>BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the narrative on monetary policy will only change if the bank changes its assumption on sustainably reaching the 2% target. Just two days ago, he had admitted that policy could change if a “big shift” in price led to market deterioration, so the latest remarks seem to be returning to the more dovish stance he has maintained since becoming the head of the BOJ. USD/JPY was little changed but ended marginally higher, with bulls eying 140.00 again, and 138.00 is seen as support. Yen appears weaker early Wednesday.</p>
<h2>Canada CPI Inflation Falls to 26-Month Low</h2>
<p>Canada’s June CPI grew at a monthly rate of 0.1% compared to 0.3% expected, bringing the annual rate to 2.8%, below the 3.0% forecast, the top range for the BOC’s target. That’s the first time it’s been in that range in 26 months. Core inflation experienced a dramatic decline to 3.2% from 3.7%.USD/CAD rose then fell, leaving resistance at $1.3240 behind and opening up $1.3117.</p>
<h2>Kiwi Swings Following HIgher Inflation Print</h2>
<p>Q2 CPI change in New Zealand was 1.1% compared to 0.9% forecast, bringing the annual rate to 6.0%, above the 5.9% expected. Food was reported as the largest contributor to price increases. Following the data release, analysts reiterated expectations that the RBNZ would hike by a quarter of a point at the next meeting. Kiwi spiked above $0.63 momentarily but slid to 0.6250 early Wednesday, paving the way to 62 cents.</p>
<h2>On The Docket</h2>
<ul>
<li>UK CPI Inflation</li>
<li>EA CPI Inflation</li>
<li>Building Permits</li>
<li>Housing Starts</li>
<li>EIA Crude Oil Stock Change</li>
<li>BOE Ramsden Speech</li>
<li>AU Employment Change</li>
</ul>
<h2>FX 1-Day Relative Performance (USD)</h2>
<ul>
<li>Aussie and Kiwi down by 0.25% each</li>
<li>Euro unchanged, while Swissy 0.10% down</li>
<li>Loonie unchanged, Cable 0.10% lower</li>
<li>Yen 0.44% lower</li>
<li>Gold 0.06% down, silver down by 0.10%</li>
<li>Crude and Brent 0.28 and 0.14% lower</li>
<li>Natural gas fell 0.19%</li>
</ul>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/jaspers-market-squawk-19-07-2023-24320/">JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 19-07-2023</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>
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