JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 19-07-2023

<h2>Markets Advance Despite Mixed Data</h2>
<p>Equities in the US and Europe finished the day in the green, supported by a growing risk appetite among limited data releases. The dollar was flat, while gold and crude rose.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone wp-image-24324 size-full" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Untitled-design-55.png" alt="" width="1914" height="914" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Untitled-design-55.png 1914w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Untitled-design-55-300×143.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Untitled-design-55-1024×489.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Untitled-design-55-768×367.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Untitled-design-55-1536×733.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1914px) 100vw, 1914px" /><em><strong>Chart: XAUUSD</strong></em></p>
<h2>Key Factors For Today</h2>
<ul>
<li>Markets Rally as Risk Appetite Grows Amid Limited Data</li>
<li>Gold Surges 1.25% on After US Retail Sales</li>
<li>WTI Crude Jumps 2.25% as API Reports Inventory Drawdown</li>
<li>BOJ Doubles Down on Easing, Yen Weaker</li>
<li>Canadian CPI at 26-Month Low, USD/CAD Volatile</li>
<li>Kiwi Swings After Higher Inflation Print in New Zealand</li>
</ul>
<h2>Gold Soars 1.25% After US Retail Sales</h2>
<p>Monthly June retail sales in the US grew 0.2%, slightly below the 0.3% forecast, while core aligned with expectations at 0.2%. With the retail sales control group exceeding expectations, estimates for Q2 GDP are expected to have been raised, reducing chances of a recession. Gains in US equities broadened slightly following the data release, with gold rising 1.25% to $1978/oz, closer to the $2k handle. Support is expected at $1965/oz.</p>
<h2>API Drawdown Assists WTI 2.25% Higher</h2>
<p>The API reported a slight drawdown in inventories last week of -0.8M bbl compared to the 2.3M bbl build that was expected. The DOE didn&#8217;t sell any crude from the SPR last week, the first time in almost four months. WTI rose 2.25% to $75.75/bbl, distancing itself from the support at $74/bbl and exposing the next resistance at $77.34/bbl.</p>
<h2>BOJ Doubles Down on Easing, Yen Impacted</h2>
<p>BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the narrative on monetary policy will only change if the bank changes its assumption on sustainably reaching the 2% target. Just two days ago, he had admitted that policy could change if a &#8220;big shift&#8221; in price led to market deterioration, so the latest remarks seem to be returning to the more dovish stance he has maintained since becoming the head of the BOJ. USD/JPY was little changed but ended marginally higher, with bulls eying 140.00 again, and 138.00 is seen as support. Yen appears weaker early Wednesday.</p>
<h2>Canada CPI Inflation Falls to 26-Month Low</h2>
<p>Canada&#8217;s June CPI grew at a monthly rate of 0.1% compared to 0.3% expected, bringing the annual rate to 2.8%, below the 3.0% forecast, the top range for the BOC&#8217;s target. That&#8217;s the first time it&#8217;s been in that range in 26 months. Core inflation experienced a dramatic decline to 3.2% from 3.7%.USD/CAD rose then fell, leaving resistance at $1.3240 behind and opening up $1.3117.</p>
<h2>Kiwi Swings Following HIgher Inflation Print</h2>
<p>Q2 CPI change in New Zealand was 1.1% compared to 0.9% forecast, bringing the annual rate to 6.0%, above the 5.9% expected. Food was reported as the largest contributor to price increases. Following the data release, analysts reiterated expectations that the RBNZ would hike by a quarter of a point at the next meeting. Kiwi spiked above $0.63 momentarily but slid to 0.6250 early Wednesday, paving the way to 62 cents.</p>
<h2>On The Docket</h2>
<ul>
<li>UK CPI Inflation</li>
<li>EA CPI Inflation</li>
<li>Building Permits</li>
<li>Housing Starts</li>
<li>EIA Crude Oil Stock Change</li>
<li>BOE Ramsden Speech</li>
<li>AU Employment Change</li>
</ul>
<h2>FX 1-Day Relative Performance (USD)</h2>
<ul>
<li>Aussie and Kiwi down by 0.25% each</li>
<li>Euro unchanged, while Swissy 0.10% down</li>
<li>Loonie unchanged, Cable 0.10% lower</li>
<li>Yen 0.44% lower</li>
<li>Gold 0.06% down, silver down by 0.10%</li>
<li>Crude and Brent 0.28 and 0.14% lower</li>
<li>Natural gas fell 0.19%</li>
</ul>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/jaspers-market-squawk-19-07-2023-24320/">JASPER&#8217;S MARKET SQUAWK 19-07-2023</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>

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