JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 11-12-2023

<h2>US Jobs Numbers Do The Trick</h2>
<p>Investors had to finally endure a bout of cold water on Friday after the latest US labour numbers signalled the Fed is unlikely to budge against rising speculation of an early rate cut in 2024. The dollar rose with higher yields just days ahead of the CPI and Fed events, even with inflation expectations falling.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-27583" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Template-Daily-6.png" alt="" width="1914" height="914" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Template-Daily-6.png 1914w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Template-Daily-6-300×143.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Template-Daily-6-1024×489.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Template-Daily-6-768×367.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Template-Daily-6-1536×733.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1914px) 100vw, 1914px" /></p>
<p><strong>Chart: GOLD</strong></p>
<h2>Key Factors for Today</h2>
<ul>
<li>US Job Growth Seen As Catalyst For Rhetoric Change, Triggers Gold Downfall</li>
<li>Europe Hits a High on ECB Peak Rates and a Stronger Dollar Against Euro</li>
<li>SPR Refill Announcement Fuels WTI Uptick by Planned $70 Level</li>
<li>UK in Economic Rollercoaster From Property Down, Manufacturing Up</li>
</ul>
<h2>Gold Falls Over 1% on Renewed Bets of Delayed Cuts</h2>
<p>Job growth in the US took a decisive turn in November at nearly 200K and unemployment down by 20 basis points to 3.7%. Even as 1-year inflation expectations dipped to 3.1% from 4.3%, the twist came as consumer sentiment soared 8.1 points to 69.4 from 62 expected, contrasting with signs of earlier Fed cuts. The dollar rose on renewed optimism of later Fed cuts, sending gold retesting the $2K handle 1.20% lower. Below $2030, the risk of losing the round support remains increased. Meanwhile, construction employment outpaced overall employment at 2.2% vs 1.55% as mortgage rates keep falling.</p>
<h2>Europe at 22-Month High on Rising Hopes of ECB Peak</h2>
<p>The European shares market hit a 22-month high on Friday, boosted by bets of ECB peak rates as German inflation continued to fall and luxury giants gains. Coupled with a stronger dollar, EURUSD dropped to a 4-week low of $1.0725 Friday but remains largely in a range above there while trading below $1.08. Meanwhile, European Union Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni seemed confident on Friday that EU governments can agree on the bloc&#8217;s fiscal rules by the end of the year.</p>
<h2>SPR Refill Announcement Boosts WTI Over 2% Higher</h2>
<p>The US is planning a substantial purchase of 3 million barrels for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of broader efforts to refill its stocks below $70 per barrel. The announcement saw WTI rising over 2% to $71.70 on Friday and continues to impact prices early Monday, forming support at $70 per barrel. However, the US has stated that the buying process will be slow in a bid to reduce the impact on oil prices.</p>
<h2>Property Market and Manufacturing A Mixed Bag for the UK</h2>
<p>The property market in the UK is going through a bit of a rough patch, with asking prices dropping more than expected at 1.9% compared with 1.1% the year prior. However, it&#8217;s not all gloomy, as UK manufacturers show signs of recovery, according to Make UK. The Manufacturing Trade body said factories had to raise output three times in the last three months. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll last week showed that the BOE would stand pat against early cuts talk. Cable fell to $1.25 for a 3-week low on Friday but recoiled the largest part of intraday losses to $1.2546. Traders see no way out between the bottom and $1.26 as the pair appears to be flattening out in the longer term.</p>
<h2>On The Docket</h2>
<ul>
<li>US Consumer Inflation Expectations</li>
<li>ECB McCaul Speech</li>
</ul>
<h2>FX 1-Day Relative Performance (USD)</h2>
<ul>
<li>Aussie and Kiwi 0.21% and 0.06% lower</li>
<li>Euro 0.08% up, while Pound 0.07% down</li>
<li>Loonie 0.14% in red, Franc at -0.09%</li>
<li>Japanese yen 0.38% into the red</li>
<li>Gold flatlined, while Silver at +0.25</li>
<li>Both Crude oils up by 0.70%</li>
<li>Natural gas 5.85% in the red zone</li>
</ul>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/jaspers-market-squawk-11-12-2023-27582/">JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 11-12-2023</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>