JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 11-09-2023

<h2>Upcoming Data Keep Markets on Edge</h2>
<p>Indices moved modestly higher on low news flow but saw upward momentum curtailed by stronger global yields as investors weighed a barrage of key data this week as ECB and Fed speakers enter the pre-rate decision blackout period. The dollar capped a week of solid performance.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" class="alignnone wp-image-25520 size-full" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Untitled-design-88.png" alt="" width="1747" height="836" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Untitled-design-88.png 1747w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Untitled-design-88-300×144.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Untitled-design-88-1024×490.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Untitled-design-88-768×368.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Untitled-design-88-1536×735.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1747px) 100vw, 1747px" /><em><strong>Chart: USDJPY</strong></em></p>
<h2>Key Factors for Today</h2>
<ul>
<li>Markets Nervous as Data Deluge Approaches</li>
<li>Gold Holds Steady Despite Fed Hike Speculation</li>
<li>Yen Surges as BOJ Hints at Easing Policy Shift</li>
<li>German Inflation Data Dampens Expectations of ECB Rate Hike</li>
<li>Canadian Dollar Boosted as Unemployment Numbers Surprise</li>
</ul>
<h2>Gold Flat Despite Further Indications of Fed Hike</h2>
<p>The US yield curve flattened on Friday as investors priced in a higher chance of a rate hike later this year, with chances of a November hike rising to 47% from 35% last week. Gold closed somewhat mixed below $1920 despite spiking to $1930 an ounce but trades near Friday’s peak early Monday. A strike at automakers by UAW this week is seen as increasingly likely and may hurt risk appetite, bringing $1935.oz into focus.</p>
<h2>Yen Spikes After BOJ Hints that Easing Could End This Year</h2>
<p>In an interview with the Japanese press over the weekend, BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda said there might be sufficient information by year-end to judge if wage-price pressures continue, which is a key factor for the decision to end the bank&#8217;s ultra-easing policy. The yield on the 10-year JGB jumped 5bps to the highest level since 2014, sending USD/JPY towards 146 and leaving 147 as resistance.</p>
<h2>German Inflation Confirms Lower Chance of ECB Hike</h2>
<p>German final August CPI was confirmed at an annual rate of 6.1%, compared to 6.2% in July. Markets are seen pricing in a 35% chance of a rate hike when the ECB meets later in the week. EUR/USD was mixed on Friday but peaks up early Monday with the potential of reaching $1.0766 rising. $1.0686 is expected support.</p>
<h2>Loonie Bid After Canada Unemployment Surprises</h2>
<p>August net change in employment nearly doubled forecasts at 39.9K compared to 20K expected, with the unemployment rate dropping to 5.5% compared to the 5.6% forecast. The Canadian dollar strengthened, leaving behind resistance at $1.3685 and currently flirting with $1.36.</p>
<h2>On The Docket</h2>
<ul>
<li>IT Industrial Production</li>
<li>BOE Pill Speech</li>
<li>BOE Mann Speech</li>
<li>Westpac Consumer Confidence Change</li>
<li>NAB Business Confidence</li>
<li>New Yuan Loans</li>
</ul>
<h2>FX 1-Day Relative Performance (USD)</h2>
<ul>
<li>Aussie and Kiwi up by 0.97% and 0.79%</li>
<li>Euro 0.32% higher, Pound leads at +0.43%</li>
<li>Yen 1.08% upbeat, Franc 0.17% higher</li>
<li>Canadian dollar 0.26% higher</li>
<li>Gold and Silver are up by 0.40% and 0.80%</li>
<li>Crude 0.37% lower down, while Brent flat</li>
<li>Natural gas 2.15% in the red</li>
</ul>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/jaspers-market-squawk-11-09-2023-25519/">JASPER&#8217;S MARKET SQUAWK 11-09-2023</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>