JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 01-08-2023

<h2>Markets Drift Higher On Mixed PMIs</h2>
<p>US indices moved higher to close July on a positive tone, with the S&amp;P 500 putting in a 5-month winning streak. EU CPI and GDP came in mostly in line while the dollar continued higher.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone wp-image-24697 size-full" src="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Untitled-design-63.png" alt="" width="1755" height="839" srcset="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Untitled-design-63.png 1755w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Untitled-design-63-300×143.png 300w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Untitled-design-63-1024×490.png 1024w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Untitled-design-63-768×367.png 768w, https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Untitled-design-63-1536×734.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1755px) 100vw, 1755px" /><em><strong>Chart: XTIUSD</strong></em></p>
<h2>Key Factors For Today</h2>
<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500 Extends 5-Month Winning Streak, US Indices Close July on a Positive Note</li>
<li>US PMI Contracted Further, but Treasury’s Debt Announcement Supports Dollar</li>
<li>Euro Under Pressure While Eurozone Macros Align with Expectations</li>
<li>China Manufacturing Contracts for the Third Time, Appear to Support Gold</li>
<li>Global Oil Demand Expected to Hit All-Time High, WTI Notches 3-Day Streak</li>
</ul>
<h2>US PMI Contracts Further But Treasury Supports USD</h2>
<p>The US PMI compiled by the University of Chicago fell further into contraction at 42.8 compared to 43.5 expected. Fed’s SLOOS showed tighter bank lending, increasing worries that the economy might face headwinds. The Treasury announced it planned to issue $1.0T in debt over the next three months, compared to $885B expected, which could have contributed to the dollar gaining despite yields easing. USD/JPY rose 0.78% to 142.26, eying 143.00 early Tuesday and a 3-day winning streak. 141.84 is expected support should the daily low fail.</p>
<h2>Eurozone Macros Align With Expectations, Euro Pressured</h2>
<p>Flash July Eurozone inflation came in at 5.3%, slightly above the 5.2% expected but below the prior 5.5%. The core rate remained unchanged at 5.5%, above the decline of 5.4% expected. The first look at the shared economy growth showed Q2 GDP increasing by 0.3%, in line with expectations and up from flat in the first quarter. EUR/USD lost 0.20% after bulls failed to reclaim $1.1050, closing the session under $1.10. Additional pressure will expose $1.0917.</p>
<h2>China Manufacturing Notches 3rd Contraction, Boosts Gold</h2>
<p>The NBS’s manufacturing PMI was slightly above expectations at 49.3 compared to 49.0 prior but up from the 48.9 forecast. The General PMI, however, was below expectations at 51.1 compared to 52.0. The disappointing data played into concerns over global growth which typically support gold prices. The yellow metal witnessed an uptick to $1965/oz, adding 0.33% on its way up, but appears to have fully reversed early Tuesday, opening up $1950/oz.</p>
<h2>Crude Demand at ATH, WTI Pulls 3-Day Streak Off</h2>
<p>Reportedly, Goldman Sachs estimated that global oil demand hit an all-time high during July, averaging 102.8M boepd. The price of crude saw the largest increase during the month since the start of last year, up 1.44% on Monday and above $80/bbl. Defending the handle brings $82.40/bbl into the spotlight, with the peak at $83.44/bbl as nearby resistance. Losing the round support might put an end to oil’s 3-day streak.</p>
<h2>On The Docket</h2>
<ul>
<li>EA HCOB Manufacturing PMI</li>
<li>S&amp;P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI</li>
<li>EA Unemployment Rate</li>
<li>S&amp;P Global Manufacturing PMI</li>
<li>JOLTS Job Openings</li>
<li>ISM Manufacturing PMI</li>
<li>API Crude Oil Stock Change</li>
</ul>
<h2>FX 1-Day Relative Performance (USD)</h2>
<ul>
<li>Aussie 0.69% down, Kiwi by -0.29%</li>
<li>Euro 0.06% lower, pound down by 0.09%</li>
<li>Yen is down by 0.34%, Swissy by a -0.04%</li>
<li>Loonie lower by 0.25%</li>
<li>Gold 0.57% down, Silver 0.91% lower</li>
<li>Crude and Brent 0.36% lower each</li>
<li>Natural gas is up by 0.99%</li>
</ul>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/analysis/jaspers-market-squawk-01-08-2023-24693/">JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 01-08-2023</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.keytomarkets.com/blog">Key To Markets Blog</a>.</p>