IBD/TIPP economic optimism index 36.3 versus 41.6 expected

<ul><li>Prior month 43.2</li><li>IBD/TIPP economic optimism index for September 36.3 versus 41.6 expected</li><li>Index is the lowest level in 12 years</li></ul><p>Details according to the survey results:</p><ul><li>The IBD/TIPP U.S. Economic Optimism Index dropped to a 12-year low of 36.3 in October, indicating increased pessimism.</li><li>Confidence in the near-term economic outlook hit its lowest level in the poll's history.</li><li>The 6-month economic outlook index fell 9.6 points to a record low of 28.7, indicating greater pessimism than during major past economic crises.</li><li>The Federal Reserve plans to maintain the key interest rate above 5% through next year, based on data from June and July.</li><li>Higher market interest rates, increased gas prices, and renewed student loan payments have impacted consumers.</li><li>The IBD/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index rose to 70.5, its highest since December 2008, indicating increased financial stress.</li><li>The poll could support the view that the Federal Reserve has increased rates enough, with future decisions dependent on incoming data.</li><li>Although the Fed's projections suggest a recession has been avoided, 54% of adults in the IBD/TIPP Poll believe the U.S. is in a recession.</li><li>Concern about a potential recession has risen to 86%, slightly below the recent peak of 87% in May.</li></ul><ul><li>Only 16% of adults in the IBD/TIPP Poll believe their wages have kept pace with inflation, a decrease from 20% in September.</li><li>60% of respondents feel their wages haven't kept up with inflation, an increase from 54% the previous month.</li><li>Official data from the Labor Department contradicts poll findings, showing real average hourly earnings rose 0.5% over the past year.</li><li>The six-month U.S. economic outlook subindex dropped to 28.7 in October, lower than June 2022’s 30.6, marking the lowest since July 2008.</li><li>The personal finances subindex fell 6 points to 46.8, indicating increased pessimism; it was at its most pessimistic at 45.3 in July 2022.</li><li>Support for federal economic policies subindex declined 5.1 points to 33.5, a nine-year low, after the Supreme Court struck down Biden's student loan forgiveness program.</li><li>The expiration of the moratorium on student loan payments and the requirement for initial payments this month contribute to economic pessimism.</li></ul><p>Not a good read from the consumer. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.