Hawkish FOMC Minutes Boost Dollar

USDJPY Rally ContinuesUSDJPY broke out to new highs for the year yesterday as the rally in the pair off the July lows continues to gather pace.  USD has seen strong demand over recent weeks against a backdrop of shifting Fed expectations. While the market had initially scaled back tightening expectations for the remainder of the year, expectations have become more divided recently in light of the resilience of the US economy (as shown by continued data strength) and hawkish Fed commentary.Hawkish FOMC MinutesThis week, the release of the FOMC meeting minutes further endorsed those remaining hawkish risks. The minute showed that most members felt that inflationary risks were still skewed to the upside, meaning that further tightening would likely be necessary.  Currently market pricing shows around a 40% chance of a hike at the November/December meetings. However, if there is any stickiness or fresh uptick in inflation in coming months, this pricing could easily spike, leading USD higher near-term.JPY Under PressureJPY remains weak here, despite the broader risk off tone to markets. Traders appear to be caught in a game of cat and mouse with the BOJ given that the bank continues to stick to its easing stance, despite ongoing weakening of JPY. Notably, the pair is now sitting above levels at which we saw intervention last year, raising near-term risks of a reversal lower.Technical ViewsUSDJPYThe rally in USDJPY has seen the pair breaking out to fresh highs for the year, moving above the 145 level. Price is currently stalled into a test of the bull channel top though, with momentum studies bullish, focus is on a continued push higher while price holds above the 142.21 support. Below there, 138 and the bull channel lows are the next support area to note.