Goldman Sachs on US election year seasonals – weaker than normal equity returns expected

<p>A note from Goldman Sachs' portfolio strategy research team on what the seasonals show for the year ahead of a US Presdiential election:</p><p>since 1932 the 12 months heading into an election has seen the S&amp;P 500 averaging a 7% return vs. 95 in noon-election years</p><p>since 1984 the S&amp;P 500 has chalked up an average return of 4% in the preceding 12 months</p><p>Summary comments:</p><ul><li>“Profit growth is typically strong in election years while valuations move sideways” </li><li>“Info Tech has usually been the worst performing sector in the year ahead of the election. Defensive sectors tend to perform best, led by Utilities and Consumer Staples.”
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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.