Goldman Sachs on the FOMC hurdle if they pause in November too. Rate cuts from Q2 2024

<p>Goldman Sachs are with most in the market in expecting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to leave the fed Funds rate unchanged at the September meeting. </p><p>November is the meeting after this and that one is more complicated for the Fed. GS say that another skip in November would raise the “hurdle for re-starting the
cycle”.</p><p>Further out though:</p><p>“ … we think Fed officials are
unlikely to move quickly into a rate-cutting cycle unless growth
slows more than we are forecasting in the coming quarters, and we
expect only very gradual cuts of 25bp per quarter starting in 2Q24”</p><p>—</p><p>The September FOMC meeting looks to be a hold, almost certainly (this is the CME 'FedWatch tool'):</p><p>While November is still roughly a 60/40 shot:</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.