Goldman Sachs: Expectations for US CPI print on Thursday, lower than consensus

<p>Goldman Sachs shares its outlook on the upcoming US
Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, with expectations slightly
lower than the general consensus. Here are the key details:</p><p>July Core CPI Prediction: Goldman expects a 0.15%
increase in core CPI for July, translating to a year-over-year rate of
4.66%. This is below the consensus of a 0.2% increase and a 4.8%
year-over-year rate.</p><p>July Headline CPI Forecast: The bank anticipates a
0.16% rise in headline CPI, corresponding to a 3.17% year-over-year
rate. The consensus stands at a 0.2% increase with a 3.3%
year-over-year rate.</p><p>Monthly Core CPI Inflation: Looking ahead, Goldman
sees monthly core CPI inflation remaining within the 0.2-0.3% range over
the next several months. This outlook reflects an expected moderation
in shelter inflation, decreased used car prices, and slower non-housing
services inflation as labor demand continues to ease.</p><p>Year-End Forecasts: Goldman projects core CPI inflation to be at 3.8% in December 2023 and 3.0% in December 2024.</p><p>Key Points:</p><ol><li>Goldman's expectations for July core and headline CPI are below market consensus.</li><li>The bank anticipates continued moderation in shelter inflation,
lower used car prices, and slower non-housing services inflation.</li><li>The longer-term forecast points to a decline in core CPI inflation by the end of 2024.</li></ol><p>Conclusion: Goldman's forecast for the US CPI print
on Thursday is slightly lower than the market consensus, reflecting a
nuanced view of inflation drivers. The bank's projections take into
account various factors influencing inflation, including shelter, used
car prices, and non-housing services. The outlook also indicates a
declining trend in core CPI inflation over the next couple of years.
This analysis provides a counterpoint to more widespread expectations
and underscores the complexity of inflation dynamics in the current
economic environment.</p><p>For bank trade ideas, <a href="https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1691596049314000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1enT_eaaemxhwUJjtR1Sik">check out eFX Plus</a>. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. <a href="https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1691596049314000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1enT_eaaemxhwUJjtR1Sik">Get it here</a>.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.