Goldman Sachs' $86 oil forecast, weighing up supply & demand factors, bank is net bullish

<p>Goldman Sachs commodity analysts take a look at the "risk developments" to their forecast for $86 oil by December 2023.</p><p>On net, the risk developments … have been bullish-to-mixed over the past month</p><p>The bullish developments are:</p><ul><li>The arrival of inventory draws</li><li>The key bullish risk—lower-for-longer OPEC+ supply—has grown with the fall in our Russia supply nowcast and Saudi's reiterated commitment to cuts and apparent willingness to extend and even deepen cuts.</li><li>Recent Black Sea drone attacks highlight the risk to Russia commodity exports</li></ul><p>In contrast, the other key bearish risk—a further rise in Iran supply—has grown</p><ul><li>risk has grown with media reports of a potential US-Iran prisoner swap, and a TankerTrackers estimate that Iran exports of crude and condensates during the first 20 days of August have surged by over 500kb/d to 2.2mb/d. </li></ul><p>
Finally, China demand news is mixed</p><ul><li>downside risk to our economists' 2023 GDP growth forecast of 5.4% has grown given the ongoing property slump and the inability of only marginal policy easing to restore confidence</li><li>On the other hand, our China oil demand forecast has been solid this summer … </li><li>This disconnect likely reflects that the weakness in China macro data is quite concentrated outside the oil-intensive services sector, and that China international jet demand is still recovering.</li></ul><p>On China:</p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.