Gold Technical: Bears are stalling again at the 200-day moving average ahead of US CPI and ECB
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<li><strong>Last Friday’s price actions of spot Gold (XAU/USD) have managed to find support again at the 200-day moving average ahead of the US CPI data release & ECB monetary policy decision this week.</strong></li>
<li><strong>The recent -5.15 % decline seen in Gold from its 20 July 2023 swing high of US$$1,987.53 has started to see some signs of short-term bullish reversal elements since 21 August 2023.</strong></li>
<li><strong>The up-trending 10-year US Treasury real yield has also started to consolidate between 1.95% to 2.00% level which may negate the bearish tone on Gold at least in the short-term.</strong></li>
<li><strong>US$1,910 support and US$1,932 resistance are the two key short-term technical levels to watch. </strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Since its 20 July 2023 swing high of US$1,987.53, <a href="https://www.oanda.com/sg-en/trading/instruments/">spot Gold (XAU/USD)</a> has declined by -5.15% to print a low of US$1,885 on 17 August 2023 in line with a rising longer-term 10-year US Treasury real yield which increased the opportunity costs of holding gold as it is a non-interest yielding asset.</p>
<h2><strong>Major uptrend remains intact </strong></h2>
<p><a href="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XAUUSD_2023-09-11_09-53-34.png"><img loading="lazy" class="alignnone wp-image-807463 size-large" src="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XAUUSD_2023-09-11_09-53-34-1024×599.png" alt="" width="700" height="409" srcset="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XAUUSD_2023-09-11_09-53-34-1024×599.png 1024w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XAUUSD_2023-09-11_09-53-34-300×176.png 300w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XAUUSD_2023-09-11_09-53-34-768×450.png 768w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XAUUSD_2023-09-11_09-53-34.png 1488w" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" /></a></p>
<p>Fig 1: Gold (XAU/USD) major trend as of 11 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)</p>
<p>Despite the underperformance of Gold seen in the past five weeks, its major uptrend phase in place since the 3 November 2022 low of US$1,616 remains intact as the -5.15% fall from the 20 July 2023 high of US$1,987.15 has managed to stall at the lower boundary of a major ascending channel from its 3 November 2022 major swing low and close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior major uptrend phase from 3 November 2022 low to 4 May 2023 high (see daily chair).</p>
<p>Also, the up-trending 10-year US Treasury real yield (derived via the inflation-protected securities, TIPS of the same duration) has started to consolidate at the 1.95% to 2.00% level which may negate the bearish tone on Gold at this juncture.</p>
<h2><strong>Short-term momentum has tilted toward the bullish camp</strong></h2>
<p><a href="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XAUUSD_2023-09-11_11-47-32.png"><img loading="lazy" class="alignnone wp-image-807465 size-large" src="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XAUUSD_2023-09-11_11-47-32-1024×599.png" alt="" width="700" height="409" srcset="https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XAUUSD_2023-09-11_11-47-32-1024×599.png 1024w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XAUUSD_2023-09-11_11-47-32-300×176.png 300w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XAUUSD_2023-09-11_11-47-32-768×450.png 768w, https://www.marketpulse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/XAUUSD_2023-09-11_11-47-32.png 1488w" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" /></a></p>
<p>Fig 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor short-term uptrend as of 11 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)</p>
<p>Since 26 August 2023, the price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have reintegrated back above the key 200-day moving average and its recent slide from its US$1,953 minor swing high of 1 September 2023 has managed to find support at the 200-day moving after a retest on it on last week, the lower boundary of a minor ascending channel from 21 August 2023 low and close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent minor uptrend from 21 August 2023 low to 1 September 2023 high.</p>
<p>In addition, the hourly RSI oscillator, a gauge of short-term momentum shaped a bullish divergence condition on 7 September 2023 and continued to trace out a series of “higher lows” thereafter.</p>
<p>These observations indicate a revival of short-term bullish momentum conditions that in turn advocates another round of minor potential up leg in Gold. Watch the US$1,910 key short-term pivotal support and a break above the intermediate resistance at US$1,932 (also the 50-day moving average) may see a further push-up for the next resistances to come in at US$1,938 and US$1,949.</p>
<p>On the other hand, failure to hold at US$1,910 invalidates the bullish scenario for a further slide to expose the major support at US$1,903.</p>
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